Suphanburi 1-1 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suphanburi at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suphanburi vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Ratchaburi travel to Suphanburi Municipality Stadium to take on Suphanburi. The game is scheduled for Thursday 7 October 2021, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suphanburi stand at 1W 3D 1L from 5 Thai League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Suphanburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Suphanburi have posted 1W 2D 0L at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium — 1.67 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have recorded 1W 1D 2L from 4 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi's away record: 1W 1D 2L from 4 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Suphanburi 1.20 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Suphanburi trading profile (4 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Ratchaburi trading profile (4 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Suphanburi 100% and Ratchaburi 25% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suphanburi 100% | Ratchaburi 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suphanburi 1.37 xG and Ratchaburi 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suphanburi attack 1.119 / defence 1.250 | Ratchaburi attack 0.627 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.312. Data: 5 Suphanburi games / 4 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suphanburi 41% | Draw 35% | Ratchaburi 24%. Fair-value odds: Suphanburi 2.44 | Draw 2.86 | Ratchaburi 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Suphanburi as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suphanburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Suphanburi 100% | Ratchaburi 25% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suphanburi vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Suphanburi Municipality Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 7 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suphanburi 41% | Draw 35% | Ratchaburi 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 52% | xG Suphanburi 1.37 / Ratchaburi 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Suphanburi attack 1.119 / def 1.250 | Ratchaburi attack 0.627 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Suphanburi (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Suphanburi xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Ratchaburi xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suphanburi vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Suphanburi vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Thursday 7 October 2021 at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium.
What was the final score in Suphanburi vs Ratchaburi?
Suphanburi 1 - 1 Ratchaburi.
Where is Suphanburi vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium.
What competition is Suphanburi vs Ratchaburi part of?
Suphanburi vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Suphanburi vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Suphanburi a 41% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 24% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Suphanburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suphanburi vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Suphanburi and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Suphanburi vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suphanburi and Ratchaburi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suphanburi and Ratchaburi in?
Suphanburi (all comps): 1W-3D-1L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Ratchaburi (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Suphanburi's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Suphanburi's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suphanburi Win
41%
2.46
35%
2.87
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Suphanburi xG
Total xG
2.40
1.03
Ratchaburi xG
2.46
41%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
25%
3.92
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
6%
16.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suphanburi vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Suphanburi and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Suphanburi and 1.03 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Suphanburi vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 4 outings, Suphanburi have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 1W 2D 1L record — D-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Suphanburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ratchaburi's form line: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suphanburi on 1.25 PPG, Ratchaburi on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Suphanburi have posted 1.67 PPG from 3 outings (1W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Suphanburi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ratchaburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Suphanburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Suphanburi are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 0.75 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suphanburi have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Ratchaburi in 25%.
Defensively: Ratchaburi in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suphanburi
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suphanburi and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Suphanburi have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 games (1.25 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suphanburi at home or Ratchaburi away?
Suphanburi's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suphanburi at home: 1.67 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Suphanburi or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suphanburi have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Suphanburi
1
Draws
1
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suphanburi and Ratchaburi?
From 2 meetings on record, Suphanburi have won 0, Ratchaburi have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suphanburi and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2022, when Ratchaburi 2-1 Suphanburi.
Who has won more matches between Suphanburi and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suphanburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Suphanburi at 100%, Ratchaburi at 33%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Suphanburi and 33% for Ratchaburi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi in 33%; Ratchaburi in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suphanburi home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suphanburi play Ratchaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Suphanburi's games and 33% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suphanburi vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Suphanburi's matches and 33% of Ratchaburi's.
Do Suphanburi and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Suphanburi have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Suphanburi and Ratchaburi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Suphanburi and Ratchaburi drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suphanburi 1.37 xG and Ratchaburi 1.03 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suphanburi attack 1.12 / defence 1.25 against Ratchaburi attack 0.63 / defence 1.06, drawn from 5/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suphanburi 41% | Draw 35% | Ratchaburi 24%, with Suphanburi to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suphanburi 100%, Ratchaburi 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suphanburi's trading profile (4 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (4 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suphanburi 1.25 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Suphanburi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.