Suphanburi 2-2 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suphanburi at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suphanburi vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Suphanburi and Prachuap meet at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 September 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Suphanburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Suphanburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Prachuap have collected 0.50 PPG across 2 Thai League 1 outings this season: 0W 1D 1L. Last five: D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Suphanburi's 1.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Prachuap's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suphanburi 1.64 xG and Prachuap 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suphanburi attack 0.960 / defence 1.281 | Prachuap attack 0.803 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.234. Prachuap bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Suphanburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Suphanburi games / 2 Prachuap games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Suphanburi 43% | Draw 31% | Prachuap 26%. Fair-value odds: Suphanburi 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Prachuap 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suphanburi are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suphanburi if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suphanburi vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Suphanburi Municipality Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suphanburi 43% | Draw 31% | Prachuap 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Suphanburi 1.64 / Prachuap 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Suphanburi attack 0.960 / def 1.281 | Prachuap attack 0.803 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Suphanburi (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Suphanburi xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Prachuap xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suphanburi vs Prachuap kick off?
Suphanburi vs Prachuap kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium.
What was the final score in Suphanburi vs Prachuap?
Suphanburi 2 - 2 Prachuap.
Where is Suphanburi vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium.
What competition is Suphanburi vs Prachuap part of?
Suphanburi vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Suphanburi vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Suphanburi a 43% chance of winning, Prachuap a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Suphanburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suphanburi vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Suphanburi and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Suphanburi vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suphanburi and Prachuap?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suphanburi and Prachuap in?
Suphanburi (all comps): 0W-2D-0L in 2 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D. Prachuap (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Suphanburi's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Prachuap's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — Prachuap's attack (0.80x) against Suphanburi's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Suphanburi Win
43%
2.35
31%
3.22
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Suphanburi xG
Total xG
2.91
1.27
Prachuap xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
12%
8.35
5%
19.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.4 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suphanburi vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Suphanburi and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Suphanburi and 1.27 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Suphanburi vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Suphanburi come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 2D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D. It's still early in the season for Suphanburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Prachuap sit at 0.50 PPG from 2 outings (0W 1D 1L), a run that reads D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Suphanburi carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Prachuap — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Suphanburi are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap in 100%.
Defensively: Suphanburi have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suphanburi
Early Season
Prachuap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suphanburi and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Suphanburi have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 games (1.00 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Suphanburi or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suphanburi have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Prachuap in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Suphanburi
1
Draws
0
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suphanburi and Prachuap?
From 2 meetings on record, Suphanburi have won 1, Prachuap have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suphanburi and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2022, when Prachuap 1-2 Suphanburi.
Who has won more matches between Suphanburi and Prachuap?
Suphanburi have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suphanburi home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suphanburi play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Suphanburi's games and 100% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suphanburi vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Suphanburi's matches and 100% of Prachuap's.
Do Suphanburi and Prachuap tend to score early?
Suphanburi have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Suphanburi and Prachuap share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Suphanburi and Prachuap drew 2-2 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suphanburi 1.64 xG and Prachuap 1.27 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suphanburi attack 0.96 / defence 1.28 against Prachuap attack 0.80 / defence 1.25, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Suphanburi 43% | Draw 31% | Prachuap 26%, with Suphanburi to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suphanburi 50%, Prachuap 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Suphanburi arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Suphanburi scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.