Sukhothai FC 1-0 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Police Tero at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Police Tero fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Police Tero make the trip to Thung Talay Luang Stadium to face Sukhothai FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 November 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sukhothai FC have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 2L across 5 games at Thung Talay Luang Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thung Talay Luang Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Police Tero's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Police Tero have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Sukhothai FC, 1.50 for Police Tero — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Sukhothai FC half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Police Tero half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 46% versus Police Tero 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 27% | Police Tero 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 0.94 xG and Police Tero 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.667 / defence 1.130 | Police Tero attack 1.249 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 1.225. Sukhothai FC's attack strength of 0.667 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Police Tero have an above-average attack strength of 1.249 — the away xG of 1.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 Sukhothai FC games / 41 Police Tero games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 19% | Draw 25% | Police Tero 55%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 5.26 | Draw 4.00 | Police Tero 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Police Tero (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Police Tero as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sukhothai FC 20% | Police Tero 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 19% | Draw 25% | Police Tero 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Sukhothai FC 0.94 / Police Tero 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.667 / def 1.130 | Police Tero attack 1.249 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.261 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Police Tero (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Police Tero xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Police Tero kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Police Tero kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Police Tero?
Sukhothai FC 1 - 0 Police Tero.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Police Tero part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Police Tero is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 19% chance of winning, Police Tero a 55% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Police Tero the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Police Tero will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Police Tero?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Police Tero in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Police Tero (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sukhothai FC's attack rating (0.67) and Police Tero's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Police Tero's attack (1.25x) against Sukhothai FC's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 11/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-2 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Police Tero Win
19%
5.14
25%
3.94
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.67
1.73
Police Tero xG
5.14
19%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
18%
5.64
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
3%
28.99
22%
4.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 12.0 | 10.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.73 for Police Tero, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Police Tero?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 11 outings, Sukhothai FC have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 5D 4L record — D-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Police Tero's form line: 4W 3D 4L from 11 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Sukhothai FC against 1.36 for Police Tero. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sukhothai FC have posted 1.00 PPG from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
On the road, Police Tero have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sukhothai FC are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Police Tero are on 1.45 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Police Tero in 73%.
Defensively: Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Police Tero
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Police Tero in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 5D 4L in their last 11 games (1.00 PPG), while Police Tero have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Police Tero away?
Police Tero's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.00 PPG; Police Tero away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Sukhothai FC or Police Tero been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Police Tero in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sukhothai FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Police Tero — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Sukhothai FC
1
Draws
0
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Police Tero?
From 4 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 3, Police Tero have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Police Tero last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2024, when Sukhothai FC 2-0 Police Tero.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Police Tero?
Sukhothai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 20%, Police Tero 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Sukhothai FC) and 60% (Police Tero).
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Sukhothai FC have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Police Tero?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 80% of Police Tero's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Police Tero usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 60% of Police Tero's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sukhothai FC and Police Tero tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Police Tero in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sukhothai FC defy the odds to beat Police Tero 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Police Tero 1-0 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 0.94 xG and Police Tero 1.73 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Police Tero landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.67 / defence 1.13 against Police Tero attack 1.25 / defence 1.11, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 19% | Draw 25% | Police Tero 55%, with Police Tero to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Sukhothai FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 27%, Police Tero 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Police Tero's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.00 PPG, Police Tero 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sukhothai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Police Tero (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.