Sukhothai FC 1-1 Lampang FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sukhothai FC at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sukhothai FC vs Lampang FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sukhothai FC and Lampang FC meet at Thung Talay Luang Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 February 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sukhothai FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's home record at Thung Talay Luang Stadium: 3W 3D 3L from 9 Thai League 1 appearances (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thung Talay Luang Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lampang FC have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lampang FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lampang FC's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 6L across 9 road games this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Sukhothai FC. A 0.70 PPG lead over Lampang FC (1.10 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sukhothai FC lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with Sukhothai FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Sukhothai FC half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Lampang FC half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 42% versus Lampang FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 42% | Lampang FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.14 xG and Lampang FC 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.679 / defence 1.043 | Lampang FC attack 0.739 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.142. Sukhothai FC's attack strength of 0.679 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 Sukhothai FC games / 19 Lampang FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 40% | Draw 34% | Lampang FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.50 | Draw 2.94 | Lampang FC 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sukhothai FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 22% | Lampang FC 56% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Lampang FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Feb 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 40% | Draw 34% | Lampang FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.14 / Lampang FC 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.679 / def 1.043 | Lampang FC attack 0.739 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Lampang FC xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Lampang FC kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Lampang FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 19 February 2023 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Lampang FC?
Sukhothai FC 1 - 1 Lampang FC.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Lampang FC being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Lampang FC part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Lampang FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Lampang FC?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 40% chance of winning, Lampang FC a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Lampang FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Lampang FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Lampang FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Lampang FC?
Record (1 meetings): Sukhothai FC 1W | Draws 0 | Lampang FC 0W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Lampang FC in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Lampang FC (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sukhothai FC's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Lampang FC's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Lampang FC's attack (0.74x) against Sukhothai FC's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
40%
2.52
34%
2.92
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.02
0.88
Lampang FC xG
2.52
40%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
8%
12.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 11.7 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Lampang FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Lampang FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 0.88 for Lampang FC, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Lampang FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sukhothai FC come into this having played 19 games, going 5W 6D 8L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lampang FC sit at 0.58 PPG from 19 outings (2W 5D 12L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Lampang FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sukhothai FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Lampang FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Sukhothai FC's home form reads 3W 3D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Lampang FC have taken 0.33 points per game from 9 outings (0W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sukhothai FC are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Lampang FC are on 0.74 scored and 2.11 conceded.
Defensively: Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Lampang FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Lampang FC in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 5W 6D 8L in their last 19 games (1.11 PPG), while Lampang FC have gone 2W 5D 12L in their last 19 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Lampang FC away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.33 PPG; Lampang FC away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Sukhothai FC or Lampang FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Lampang FC in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sukhothai FC
1
Draws
0
Lampang FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Lampang FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 1, Lampang FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Lampang FC last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2023, when Sukhothai FC 1-1 Lampang FC.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Lampang FC?
Sukhothai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Lampang FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 22%, Lampang FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sukhothai FC) and 56% (Lampang FC).
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Sukhothai FC have failed to score in 56% of games; Lampang FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Lampang FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Lampang FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 56% of Lampang FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Lampang FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 56% of Lampang FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sukhothai FC and Lampang FC tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Lampang FC in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sukhothai FC and Lampang FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Sukhothai FC and Lampang FC drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.14 xG and Lampang FC 0.88 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.68 / defence 1.04 against Lampang FC attack 0.74 / defence 1.15, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 40% | Draw 34% | Lampang FC 26%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 42%, Lampang FC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Lampang FC's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sukhothai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.11 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lampang FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.