Sukhothai FC 3-0 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sukhothai FC and Chiangrai United meet at Thung Talay Luang Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 February 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sukhothai FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sukhothai FC have posted 3W 4D 3L at Thung Talay Luang Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thung Talay Luang Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Chiangrai United (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Sukhothai FC against 1.60 for Chiangrai United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sukhothai FC, 0 for Chiangrai United and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sukhothai FC — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Chiangrai United — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 45% versus Chiangrai United 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 40% | Chiangrai United 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.00 xG and Chiangrai United 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.690 / defence 1.065 | Chiangrai United attack 0.910 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.126. Sukhothai FC's attack strength of 0.690 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Sukhothai FC games / 50 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 31% | Draw 34% | Chiangrai United 35%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | Chiangrai United 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Sukhothai FC 30% | Chiangrai United 70%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 31% | Draw 34% | Chiangrai United 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.00 / Chiangrai United 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.690 / def 1.065 | Chiangrai United attack 0.910 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Chiangrai United xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Chiangrai United?
Sukhothai FC 3 - 0 Chiangrai United.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Chiangrai United part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 31% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Chiangrai United?
Record (1 meetings): Sukhothai FC 0W | Draws 1 | Chiangrai United 0W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Chiangrai United in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Chiangrai United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sukhothai FC's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Chiangrai United's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Chiangrai United's attack (0.91x) against Sukhothai FC's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 20/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
31%
3.25
34%
2.96
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.09
1.09
Chiangrai United xG
3.25
31%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
10%
9.67
13%
7.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.09 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sukhothai FC come into this having played 20 games, going 5W 7D 8L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.70 PPG from 20 outings (9W 7D 4L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chiangrai United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sukhothai FC's home form reads 3W 4D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 1.00 points per game from 10 outings (2W 4D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chiangrai United's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sukhothai FC are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.55 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United in 70%.
Defensively: Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 5W 7D 8L in their last 20 games (1.10 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 9W 7D 4L in their last 20 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Chiangrai United away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.30 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sukhothai FC or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sukhothai FC won 3-0 on 25 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Chiangrai United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sukhothai FC
5
Draws
1
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Chiangrai United?
From 8 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 2, Chiangrai United have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-1 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Chiangrai United?
Sukhothai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 30%, Chiangrai United 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Sukhothai FC) and 50% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sukhothai FC have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Chiangrai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 70% of Chiangrai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 50% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sukhothai FC and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sukhothai FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Chiangrai United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Chiangrai United 3-0 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.00 xG and Chiangrai United 1.09 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sukhothai FC beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chiangrai United landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.69 / defence 1.06 against Chiangrai United attack 0.91 / defence 1.03, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 31% | Draw 34% | Chiangrai United 35%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Sukhothai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 40%, Chiangrai United 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chiangrai United arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Sukhothai FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.