Ratchaburi 3-2 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Port FC travel to Mitr Phol Stadium to take on Ratchaburi. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 April 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi at Mitr Phol Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Ratchaburi are significantly better at Mitr Phol Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Port FC — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ratchaburi at 1.00 PPG versus Port FC's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ratchaburi, 1 for Port FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Port FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Port FC in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 44% versus Port FC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 40% | Port FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.08 xG and Port FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.839 / defence 1.028 | Port FC attack 0.853 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.029 / away 1.145. Port FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing Ratchaburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Ratchaburi games / 27 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 35% | Draw 34% | Port FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Port FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ratchaburi 50% | Port FC 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Mitr Phol Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 35% | Draw 34% | Port FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Ratchaburi 1.08 / Port FC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.839 / def 1.028 | Port FC attack 0.853 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.029 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Port FC xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Port FC kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Port FC kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Mitr Phol Stadium.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Port FC?
Ratchaburi 3 - 2 Port FC.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Mitr Phol Stadium.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Port FC part of?
Ratchaburi vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 35% chance of winning, Port FC a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Ratchaburi and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Port FC?
Record (1 meetings): Ratchaburi 0W | Draws 0 | Port FC 1W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Port FC in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Port FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
35%
2.86
34%
2.94
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.08
1.00
Port FC xG
2.86
35%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
11%
9.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 12.5 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.00 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ratchaburi's recent record stands at 7W 7D 11L from 25 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC, meanwhile, have gone 10W 4D 11L across 25 games — 1.36 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ratchaburi on 1.12 PPG, Port FC on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ratchaburi have managed 5W 3D 4L from 12 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port FC's away record stands at 3W 2D 7L across 12 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Port FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ratchaburi are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.24 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Port FC in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 7W 7D 11L in their last 25 games (1.12 PPG), while Port FC have gone 10W 4D 11L in their last 25 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Port FC away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.50 PPG; Port FC away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Port FC in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ratchaburi and Port FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Dec 2023, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Ratchaburi
4
Draws
4
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Port FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 2, Port FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Port FC 2-1 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 50%, Port FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Ratchaburi) and 67% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Port FC in 33%; Ratchaburi have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Port FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 58% of Port FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 67% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Port FC tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 42% of their recent matches, Port FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Port FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Port FC 3-2 at Mitr Phol Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.08 xG and Port FC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ratchaburi beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Port FC outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.84 / defence 1.03 against Port FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.25, drawn from 25/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 35% | Draw 34% | Port FC 31%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 40%, Port FC 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Port FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.12 PPG, Port FC 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Port FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.