Ratchaburi 2-1 Khon Kaen United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Khon Kaen United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Khon Kaen United make the trip to Mitr Phol Stadium to face Ratchaburi in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Wednesday 4 May 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Ratchaburi (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ratchaburi have posted 4W 4D 2L at Mitr Phol Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Khon Kaen United have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Khon Kaen United have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Ratchaburi, 0 for Khon Kaen United and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2021, ended 2–0 with Ratchaburi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Ratchaburi half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Khon Kaen United half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 48% versus Khon Kaen United 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 41% | Khon Kaen United 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.44 xG and Khon Kaen United 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.999 / defence 1.179 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.824 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.182. Khon Kaen United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.306 — this is suppressing Ratchaburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Ratchaburi games / 29 Khon Kaen United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 42% | Draw 30% | Khon Kaen United 28%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Khon Kaen United 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 60% | Khon Kaen United 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Khon Kaen United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Mitr Phol Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 May 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 42% | Draw 30% | Khon Kaen United 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Ratchaburi 1.44 / Khon Kaen United 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.999 / def 1.179 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.824 / def 1.306 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Khon Kaen United xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Khon Kaen United kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Khon Kaen United kicked off at 12:00 on Wednesday 4 May 2022 at Mitr Phol Stadium.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Khon Kaen United?
Ratchaburi 2 - 1 Khon Kaen United.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Khon Kaen United being played?
The match is being played at Mitr Phol Stadium.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Khon Kaen United part of?
Ratchaburi vs Khon Kaen United is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Khon Kaen United?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 42% chance of winning, Khon Kaen United a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Khon Kaen United?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ratchaburi and Khon Kaen United will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Khon Kaen United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Khon Kaen United?
Record (1 meetings): Ratchaburi 1W | Draws 0 | Khon Kaen United 0W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Khon Kaen United in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Khon Kaen United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ratchaburi's attack rating (1.00) and Khon Kaen United's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Khon Kaen United's attack (0.82x) against Ratchaburi's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.2%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
42%
2.40
30%
3.33
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.58
1.15
Khon Kaen United xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
13%
7.55
7%
14.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.4 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Khon Kaen United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Khon Kaen United expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.15 for Khon Kaen United, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Khon Kaen United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ratchaburi come into this having played 29 games, going 8W 9D 12L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-D.
On the other side, Khon Kaen United sit at 1.28 PPG from 29 outings (10W 7D 12L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Ratchaburi against 1.28 for Khon Kaen United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ratchaburi's home form reads 6W 4D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Ratchaburi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Khon Kaen United have taken 1.00 points per game from 14 outings (4W 2D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Khon Kaen United are on 1.00 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Current Season
Khon Kaen United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Khon Kaen United in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 8W 9D 12L in their last 29 games (1.14 PPG), while Khon Kaen United have gone 10W 7D 12L in their last 29 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Khon Kaen United away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.57 PPG; Khon Kaen United away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Ratchaburi have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ratchaburi won 4-7 on 6 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ratchaburi have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Khon Kaen United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Ratchaburi
1
Draws
1
Khon Kaen United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Khon Kaen United?
From 8 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 6, Khon Kaen United have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Khon Kaen United last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Khon Kaen United 4-7 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Khon Kaen United?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 57%, Khon Kaen United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ratchaburi) and 50% (Khon Kaen United).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi have failed to score in 29% of games; Khon Kaen United in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Khon Kaen United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Khon Kaen United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 50% of Khon Kaen United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Khon Kaen United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 50% of Khon Kaen United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Khon Kaen United tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Khon Kaen United in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Khon Kaen United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Khon Kaen United 2-1 at Mitr Phol Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.44 xG and Khon Kaen United 1.15 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.00 / defence 1.18 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.82 / defence 1.31, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 42% | Draw 30% | Khon Kaen United 28%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 41%, Khon Kaen United 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.14 PPG, Khon Kaen United 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.