Ratchaburi 1-2 Bangkok United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 38%, yet in-form Bangkok United provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ratchaburi and Bangkok United meet at Mitr Phol Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 20 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 2L from 7 games (1.29 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bangkok United (all games): 5W 1D 1L across 7 Thai League 1 outings this term — 2.29 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.57 per game and conceding 0.86. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Bangkok United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bangkok United's away record: 2W 0D 1L from 3 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Bangkok United arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.29 vs 1.29) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Ratchaburi half-time and goal-timing data (7 games): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Bangkok United half-time and goal-timing data (7 games): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 43% versus Bangkok United 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ratchaburi 29% | Bangkok United 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.25 xG and Bangkok United 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.021 / defence 0.960 | Bangkok United attack 0.944 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.006 / away 1.271. Bangkok United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Ratchaburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Ratchaburi games / 7 Bangkok United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 38% | Draw 28% | Bangkok United 34%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Bangkok United 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bangkok United (2.29 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ratchaburi 43% | Bangkok United 67%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Mitr Phol Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 38% | Draw 28% | Bangkok United 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Ratchaburi 1.25 / Bangkok United 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.021 / def 0.960 | Bangkok United attack 0.944 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.006 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Bangkok United xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United kicked off at 12:00 on Wednesday 20 October 2021 at Mitr Phol Stadium.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United?
Ratchaburi 1 - 2 Bangkok United.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United being played?
The match is being played at Mitr Phol Stadium.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United part of?
Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 38% chance of winning, Bangkok United a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ratchaburi and Bangkok United will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Bangkok United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ratchaburi and Bangkok United in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 2W-3D-2L in 7 | 1.29 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Bangkok United (all comps): 5W-1D-1L in 7 | 2.29 PPG | GF 1.57 / GA 0.86 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Bangkok United's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Bangkok United's attack (0.94x) against Ratchaburi's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
38%
2.60
28%
3.62
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.40
1.15
Bangkok United xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
12%
8.24
10%
10.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.5 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Bangkok United expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.15 for Bangkok United, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 7 outings, Ratchaburi have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 2W 3D 2L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bangkok United's form line: 5W 1D 1L from 7 games, 2.29 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Bangkok United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Bangkok United are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ratchaburi.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Bangkok United are on 1.57 scored and 0.86 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Bangkok United in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Bangkok United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Bangkok United in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 games (1.29 PPG), while Bangkok United have gone 5W 1D 1L in their last 7 (2.29 PPG).
Have Ratchaburi or Bangkok United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Bangkok United in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ratchaburi won 1-4 on 18 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ratchaburi have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bangkok United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Ratchaburi
2
Draws
6
Bangkok United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Bangkok United?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 2, Bangkok United have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Bangkok United last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Bangkok United 1-4 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Bangkok United?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bangkok United see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 43%, Bangkok United 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Ratchaburi) and 43% (Bangkok United).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Bangkok United in 43%; Ratchaburi have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Bangkok United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Bangkok United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 57% of Bangkok United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 43% of Bangkok United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Bangkok United tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bangkok United in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bangkok United defy the odds to beat Ratchaburi 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bangkok United beat Ratchaburi 1-2 at Mitr Phol Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.25 xG and Bangkok United 1.15 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bangkok United outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.02 / defence 0.96 against Bangkok United attack 0.94 / defence 1.21, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 38% | Draw 28% | Bangkok United 34%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Bangkok United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 29%, Bangkok United 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Bangkok United's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ratchaburi shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.