Prachuap 1-2 Suphanburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suphanburi at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Suphanburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Prachuap and Suphanburi meet at Sam Ao Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 January 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Prachuap's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sam Ao Stadium, Prachuap have gone 0W 4D 4L this season (8 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
Suphanburi have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Suphanburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suphanburi's away record: 1W 1D 5L from 7 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Prachuap, 0 for Suphanburi and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Prachuap half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Suphanburi half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 47% versus Suphanburi 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 40% | Suphanburi 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 0.75 xG and Suphanburi 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.639 / defence 1.187 | Suphanburi attack 0.777 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.012 / away 1.081. Prachuap's attack strength of 0.639 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Prachuap games / 15 Suphanburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 27% | Draw 33% | Suphanburi 40%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | Suphanburi 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Prachuap's lower xG of 0.75 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suphanburi at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suphanburi if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.75 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates are neutral: Prachuap 50% | Suphanburi 57%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Suphanburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 27% | Draw 33% | Suphanburi 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG Prachuap 0.75 / Suphanburi 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.639 / def 1.187 | Suphanburi attack 0.777 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.012 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Suphanburi (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Suphanburi xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Suphanburi kick off?
Prachuap vs Suphanburi kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Suphanburi?
Prachuap 1 - 2 Suphanburi.
Where is Prachuap vs Suphanburi being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Suphanburi part of?
Prachuap vs Suphanburi is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Suphanburi?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 27% chance of winning, Suphanburi a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Suphanburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Suphanburi?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Prachuap and Suphanburi will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Suphanburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Suphanburi?
Record (1 meetings): Prachuap 0W | Draws 1 | Suphanburi 0W.
What form are Prachuap and Suphanburi in?
Prachuap (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Suphanburi (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Prachuap's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against Suphanburi's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.75. Flip it around — Suphanburi's attack (0.78x) against Prachuap's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 16/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suphanburi Win
27%
3.76
33%
3.02
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Prachuap xG
Total xG
1.75
1.00
Suphanburi xG
3.76
27%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.01
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
47%
2.11
Win to Nil
10%
10.20
19%
5.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.5 | 17.4 | 8.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Suphanburi?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Suphanburi expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.00 for Suphanburi, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Suphanburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Prachuap come into this having played 15 games, going 2W 4D 9L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Suphanburi sit at 0.87 PPG from 15 outings (3W 4D 8L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Suphanburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.67 PPG for Prachuap against 0.87 for Suphanburi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Prachuap's home form reads 0W 3D 4L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Suphanburi have taken 0.57 points per game from 7 outings (1W 1D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Prachuap are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Suphanburi are on 1.07 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suphanburi in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Suphanburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Suphanburi in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 2W 4D 9L in their last 15 games (0.67 PPG), while Suphanburi have gone 3W 4D 8L in their last 15 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Suphanburi away?
Suphanburi's away record (0.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 0.43 PPG; Suphanburi away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Prachuap
1
Draws
1
Suphanburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Suphanburi?
From 2 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 0, Suphanburi have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Suphanburi last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2022, when Prachuap 1-2 Suphanburi.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Suphanburi?
Suphanburi have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Suphanburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 43%, Suphanburi 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Prachuap) and 57% (Suphanburi).
On the defensive side: Prachuap have failed to score in 57% of games; Suphanburi in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Suphanburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Suphanburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Prachuap's recent matches and 57% of Suphanburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Suphanburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Prachuap's recent games and 57% of Suphanburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Suphanburi tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Suphanburi in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Suphanburi edge out Prachuap 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suphanburi beat Prachuap 1-2 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 0.75 xG and Suphanburi 1.00 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Suphanburi outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.64 / defence 1.19 against Suphanburi attack 0.78 / defence 1.16, drawn from 16/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 27% | Draw 33% | Suphanburi 40%, with Suphanburi to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 40%, Suphanburi 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Suphanburi's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 0.67 PPG, Suphanburi 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suphanburi win broke the near-deadlock. Prachuap (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suphanburi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.