Prachuap 1-0 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Prachuap take on Ratchaburi.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Ratchaburi travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 March 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Prachuap — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap's home record at Sam Ao Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Sam Ao Stadium this season.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Prachuap are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Prachuap, 1 for Ratchaburi and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Ratchaburi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Prachuap in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 54% versus Ratchaburi 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 50% | Ratchaburi 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 0.96 xG and Ratchaburi 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.834 / defence 1.168 | Ratchaburi attack 0.698 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 0.950 / away 1.083. Ratchaburi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Prachuap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Prachuap games / 24 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 34% | Draw 36% | Ratchaburi 30%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.94 | Draw 2.78 | Ratchaburi 3.33. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Prachuap 60% | Ratchaburi 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 34% | Draw 36% | Ratchaburi 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 38% | xG Prachuap 0.96 / Ratchaburi 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.834 / def 1.168 | Ratchaburi attack 0.698 / def 1.217 | league avg home 0.950 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Ratchaburi xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Prachuap vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Prachuap 1 - 0 Ratchaburi.
Where is Prachuap vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Ratchaburi part of?
Prachuap vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 34% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 30% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Prachuap and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Ratchaburi?
Record (1 meetings): Prachuap 0W | Draws 0 | Ratchaburi 1W.
What form are Prachuap and Ratchaburi in?
Prachuap (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Prachuap's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.94
36%
2.75
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Prachuap xG
Total xG
1.85
0.88
Ratchaburi xG
2.94
34%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
14%
7.11
11%
8.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 13.9 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Prachuap and 0.88 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Prachuap's recent record stands at 7W 6D 11L from 24 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 10L across 24 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Prachuap on 1.12 PPG, Ratchaburi on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Prachuap have managed 3W 3D 6L from 12 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 2W 4D 6L across 12 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.00 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 7W 6D 11L in their last 24 games (1.12 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 7W 7D 10L in their last 24 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Ratchaburi away?
Prachuap's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.00 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Ratchaburi runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2022, when Ratchaburi won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Prachuap's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Prachuap
2
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 4, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Ratchaburi 1-1 Prachuap.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 50%, Ratchaburi 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Prachuap) and 42% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Prachuap have failed to score in 33% of games; Ratchaburi in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Prachuap's recent matches and 42% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Prachuap's recent games and 42% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Prachuap edge out Ratchaburi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Ratchaburi 1-0 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 0.96 xG and Ratchaburi 0.88 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ratchaburi landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.83 / defence 1.17 against Ratchaburi attack 0.70 / defence 1.22, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 34% | Draw 36% | Ratchaburi 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Prachuap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 50%, Ratchaburi 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.12 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock. Prachuap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.