Prachuap 2-4 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Police Tero fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Police Tero make the trip to Sam Ao Stadium to face Prachuap in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 8 October 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Prachuap (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Prachuap have posted 5W 1D 4L at Sam Ao Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Prachuap are significantly better at Sam Ao Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Police Tero have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Police Tero have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Police Tero have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Prachuap, 0 for Police Tero and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Prachuap — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Police Tero — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 56% versus Police Tero 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 56% | Police Tero 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.23 xG and Police Tero 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.036 / defence 1.094 | Police Tero attack 0.912 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.121. Data: 37 Prachuap games / 36 Police Tero games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 39% | Draw 28% | Police Tero 33%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Police Tero 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Prachuap are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Prachuap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Prachuap 60% | Police Tero 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 39% | Draw 28% | Police Tero 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Prachuap 1.23 / Police Tero 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.036 / def 1.094 | Police Tero attack 0.912 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Police Tero xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Police Tero kick off?
Prachuap vs Police Tero kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Police Tero?
Prachuap 2 - 4 Police Tero.
Where is Prachuap vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Police Tero part of?
Prachuap vs Police Tero is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 39% chance of winning, Police Tero a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Prachuap and Police Tero will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Police Tero?
Record (2 meetings): Prachuap 0W | Draws 2 | Police Tero 0W.
What form are Prachuap and Police Tero in?
Prachuap (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Police Tero (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Prachuap's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Police Tero's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Police Tero's attack (0.91x) against Prachuap's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
39%
2.57
28%
3.58
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.35
1.12
Police Tero xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
13%
7.88
10%
10.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.6 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.12 for Police Tero, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Police Tero?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, Prachuap have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 10W 7D 19L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Police Tero's form line: 8W 16D 12L from 36 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Police Tero, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Prachuap against 1.11 for Police Tero. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Prachuap have posted 1.12 PPG from 17 outings (5W 4D 8L).
On the road, Police Tero have gone 3W 7D 7L from 17 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Prachuap are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Police Tero are on 1.03 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Early Season
Police Tero
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Police Tero in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 10W 7D 19L in their last 36 games (1.03 PPG), while Police Tero have gone 8W 16D 12L in their last 36 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Police Tero away?
Prachuap's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.12 PPG; Police Tero away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Prachuap have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Police Tero — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Prachuap
4
Draws
1
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Police Tero?
From 6 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 1, Police Tero have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Police Tero last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2024, when Prachuap 2-0 Police Tero.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 53%, Police Tero 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Prachuap) and 41% (Police Tero).
On the defensive side: Prachuap have failed to score in 29% of games; Police Tero in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Police Tero?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Prachuap's recent matches and 53% of Police Tero's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Police Tero usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Prachuap's recent games and 41% of Police Tero's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Police Tero tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Police Tero in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Police Tero cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Prachuap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Police Tero beat Prachuap 2-4 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.23 xG and Police Tero 1.12 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Police Tero outscored their 1.12 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.04 / defence 1.09 against Police Tero attack 0.91 / defence 0.92, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 39% | Draw 28% | Police Tero 33%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Police Tero win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 56%, Police Tero 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Police Tero's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.03 PPG, Police Tero 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Police Tero win broke the near-deadlock. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Police Tero (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.