Prachuap 2-3 Nong Bua Pitchaya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nong Bua Pitchaya at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Nong Bua Pitchaya travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 April 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap at Sam Ao Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Sam Ao Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nong Bua Pitchaya stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nong Bua Pitchaya away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Prachuap) versus 1.80 (Nong Bua Pitchaya). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Prachuap, 1 for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Nong Bua Pitchaya winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Prachuap trading profile (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Nong Bua Pitchaya trading profile (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 54% versus Nong Bua Pitchaya 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 50% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.03 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.814 / defence 1.060 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.035 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.041 / away 1.172. Nong Bua Pitchaya bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Prachuap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Prachuap games / 26 Nong Bua Pitchaya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 28% | Draw 32% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 40%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nong Bua Pitchaya as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nong Bua Pitchaya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Prachuap 50% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 28% | Draw 32% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Prachuap 1.03 / Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.814 / def 1.060 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.035 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.041 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Nong Bua Pitchaya (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kick off?
Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Prachuap 2 - 3 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Where is Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya part of?
Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 28% chance of winning, Nong Bua Pitchaya a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Nong Bua Pitchaya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Prachuap and Nong Bua Pitchaya will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Record (1 meetings): Prachuap 0W | Draws 0 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 1W.
What form are Prachuap and Nong Bua Pitchaya in?
Prachuap (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (0.81) and Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya Win
28%
3.57
32%
3.15
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.32
1.29
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
8%
12.93
14%
6.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Nong Bua Pitchaya expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.29 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, Prachuap have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 8W 5D 13L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's form line: 11W 7D 8L from 26 games, 1.54 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Nong Bua Pitchaya are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Prachuap.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Prachuap have posted 1.25 PPG from 12 outings (4W 3D 5L).
On the road, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 2W 6D 4L from 12 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nong Bua Pitchaya's season.
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Nong Bua Pitchaya are on 1.31 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Nong Bua Pitchaya in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 8W 5D 13L in their last 26 games (1.12 PPG), while Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 11W 7D 8L in their last 26 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Nong Bua Pitchaya away?
Prachuap's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.25 PPG; Nong Bua Pitchaya away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Nong Bua Pitchaya runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2023, when Prachuap won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Prachuap's record when hosting Nong Bua Pitchaya specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Prachuap
0
Draws
4
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
From 6 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 2, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Nong Bua Pitchaya last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2025, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-0 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Prachuap at 50%, Nong Bua Pitchaya at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Prachuap) and 50% (Nong Bua Pitchaya).
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Nong Bua Pitchaya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Prachuap's games and 83% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Prachuap's recent games and 50% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Nong Bua Pitchaya tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nong Bua Pitchaya edge out Prachuap 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nong Bua Pitchaya beat Prachuap 2-3 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.03 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.29 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Prachuap beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nong Bua Pitchaya outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.81 / defence 1.06 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.03 / defence 1.22, drawn from 27/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 28% | Draw 32% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 40%, with Nong Bua Pitchaya to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 50%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nong Bua Pitchaya arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.