Prachuap 0-1 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Prachuap vs Buriram United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Prachuap welcome Buriram United to Sam Ao Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 February 2023 at 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Prachuap have posted 3W 4D 3L at Sam Ao Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Buriram United have posted 8W 2D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Buriram United's 2.80 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Prachuap's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Prachuap register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Buriram United in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Prachuap have won 1, Buriram United 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 1–3 with Buriram United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Prachuap trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Buriram United trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 64% versus Buriram United 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 58% | Buriram United 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.33 xG and Buriram United 2.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.050 / defence 1.254 | Buriram United attack 1.719 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.089. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.719 — the away xG of 2.35 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Prachuap games / 50 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 20% | Draw 21% | Buriram United 59%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 5.00 | Draw 4.76 | Buriram United 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 2.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 80% | Buriram United 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Feb 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 20% | Draw 21% | Buriram United 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 67% | xG Prachuap 1.33 / Buriram United 2.35 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.050 / def 1.254 | Buriram United attack 1.719 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
2.35
Buriram United xG
67%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Buriram United kick off?
Prachuap vs Buriram United kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 26 February 2023 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Prachuap 0 - 1 Buriram United.
Where is Prachuap vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Buriram United part of?
Prachuap vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 20% chance of winning, Buriram United a 59% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Prachuap and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Buriram United?
Record (3 meetings): Prachuap 1W | Draws 0 | Buriram United 2W.
What form are Prachuap and Buriram United in?
Prachuap (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Buriram United (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (1.05) and Buriram United's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 2.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.9%), 1-3 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
20%
5.00
21%
4.87
59%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
1 – 3
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Prachuap xG
Total xG
3.67
2.35
Buriram United xG
5.00
20%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
1.68
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
10%
10.44
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
2%
52.22
16%
6.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Prachuap and 2.35 for Buriram United, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Prachuap come into this having played 50 games, going 13W 12D 25L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Buriram United sit at 2.28 PPG from 50 outings (35W 9D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.26 PPG clear of Prachuap — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Prachuap's home form reads 7W 8D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Buriram United have taken 2.20 points per game from 25 outings (17W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.02 scored and 0.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Buriram United in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 13W 12D 25L in their last 50 games (1.02 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 35W 9D 6L in their last 50 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.16 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.20 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Buriram United in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Buriram United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when Buriram United won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Prachuap's record when hosting Buriram United specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Prachuap
1
Draws
8
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Buriram United?
From 10 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 1, Buriram United have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2026, when Prachuap 1-1 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 64%, Buriram United 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Prachuap) and 52% (Buriram United).
On the defensive side: Buriram United in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Buriram United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Prachuap's recent matches and 40% of Buriram United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Prachuap's recent games and 52% of Buriram United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Buriram United tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Buriram United edge out Prachuap 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Prachuap 0-1 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.33 xG and Buriram United 2.35 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Prachuap fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Buriram United landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.05 / defence 1.25 against Buriram United attack 1.72 / defence 0.89, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 20% | Draw 21% | Buriram United 59%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 58%, Buriram United 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Buriram United's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.