Prachuap 1-0 Bangkok United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bangkok United at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Prachuap vs Bangkok United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 20 as Prachuap welcome Bangkok United to Sam Ao Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 February 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Prachuap stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Prachuap have posted 0W 4D 6L at Sam Ao Stadium — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Bangkok United have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Bangkok United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Bangkok United have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bangkok United are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Prachuap, 1 for Bangkok United and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Bangkok United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Prachuap in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Bangkok United in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 60% versus Bangkok United 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 55% | Bangkok United 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 0.76 xG and Bangkok United 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.712 / defence 1.425 | Bangkok United attack 0.804 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.000 / away 1.075. Prachuap's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Prachuap games / 20 Bangkok United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 23% | Draw 30% | Bangkok United 47%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 4.35 | Draw 3.33 | Bangkok United 2.13. Bangkok United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bangkok United are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bangkok United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 60% | Bangkok United 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Bangkok United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 23% | Draw 30% | Bangkok United 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Prachuap 0.76 / Bangkok United 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.712 / def 1.425 | Bangkok United attack 0.804 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.000 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Bangkok United (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Bangkok United xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Bangkok United kick off?
Prachuap vs Bangkok United kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Bangkok United?
Prachuap 1 - 0 Bangkok United.
Where is Prachuap vs Bangkok United being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Bangkok United part of?
Prachuap vs Bangkok United is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Bangkok United?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 23% chance of winning, Bangkok United a 47% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bangkok United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Bangkok United?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Prachuap and Bangkok United will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Bangkok United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Bangkok United?
Record (1 meetings): Prachuap 0W | Draws 0 | Bangkok United 1W.
What form are Prachuap and Bangkok United in?
Prachuap (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Bangkok United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (0.71) and Bangkok United's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 0.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bangkok United's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bangkok United Win
23%
4.38
30%
3.36
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Prachuap xG
Total xG
1.99
1.23
Bangkok United xG
4.38
23%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
7%
14.99
22%
4.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 16.8 | 10.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Bangkok United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Bangkok United expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.23 for Bangkok United, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Bangkok United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 20 outings, Prachuap have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 4W 5D 11L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bangkok United's form line: 11W 4D 5L from 20 games, 1.85 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D. The sample for Bangkok United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bangkok United are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Prachuap.
Venue Form
On home soil, Prachuap have posted 0.40 PPG from 10 outings (0W 4D 6L). That actually lags their 0.85 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Bangkok United have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bangkok United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bangkok United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Prachuap are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bangkok United are on 1.50 scored and 0.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bangkok United in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Bangkok United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Bangkok United in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 4W 5D 11L in their last 20 games (0.85 PPG), while Bangkok United have gone 11W 4D 5L in their last 20 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Bangkok United away?
Bangkok United's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 0.40 PPG; Bangkok United away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Bangkok United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Bangkok United in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Nov 2025, when Bangkok United won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Prachuap's record when hosting Bangkok United specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Prachuap
3
Draws
5
Bangkok United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Bangkok United?
From 10 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 2, Bangkok United have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Bangkok United last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Prachuap 0-0 Bangkok United.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Bangkok United?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Bangkok United see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 60%, Bangkok United 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Prachuap) and 30% (Bangkok United).
On the defensive side: Prachuap have failed to score in 40% of games; Bangkok United in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Bangkok United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Bangkok United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Prachuap's recent matches and 30% of Bangkok United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Bangkok United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Prachuap's recent games and 30% of Bangkok United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Bangkok United tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bangkok United in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Prachuap defy the odds to beat Bangkok United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Bangkok United 1-0 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 0.76 xG and Bangkok United 1.23 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bangkok United landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.71 / defence 1.43 against Bangkok United attack 0.80 / defence 1.07, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 23% | Draw 30% | Bangkok United 47%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Prachuap win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 55%, Bangkok United 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Bangkok United's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Prachuap winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Prachuap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Bangkok United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.