Port FC 2-0 Suphanburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Suphanburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Port FC and Suphanburi meet at PAT Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 9 February 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Port FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Port FC have posted 5W 2D 2L at PAT Stadium — 1.89 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium.
Suphanburi (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Suphanburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Suphanburi have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Port FC 0W, Suphanburi 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Suphanburi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Port FC — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Suphanburi — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 47% versus Suphanburi 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 42% | Suphanburi 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.24 xG and Suphanburi 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 0.960 / defence 1.041 | Suphanburi attack 0.811 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.019 / away 1.083. Suphanburi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing Port FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Port FC games / 19 Suphanburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 44% | Draw 29% | Suphanburi 27%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Suphanburi 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Port FC 33% | Suphanburi 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Suphanburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Feb 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 44% | Draw 29% | Suphanburi 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Port FC 1.24 / Suphanburi 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 0.960 / def 1.041 | Suphanburi attack 0.811 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.019 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Port FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Suphanburi xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Suphanburi kick off?
Port FC vs Suphanburi kicked off at 12:00 on Wednesday 9 February 2022 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Suphanburi?
Port FC 2 - 0 Suphanburi.
Where is Port FC vs Suphanburi being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Suphanburi part of?
Port FC vs Suphanburi is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Suphanburi?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 44% chance of winning, Suphanburi a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Suphanburi?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Port FC and Suphanburi will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Suphanburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Suphanburi?
Record (1 meetings): Port FC 0W | Draws 0 | Suphanburi 1W.
What form are Port FC and Suphanburi in?
Port FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Suphanburi (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Port FC's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Suphanburi's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Suphanburi's attack (0.81x) against Port FC's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
44%
2.29
29%
3.45
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.15
0.91
Suphanburi xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
8%
12.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 10.6 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Suphanburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Port FC and Suphanburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Port FC and 0.91 for Suphanburi, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Suphanburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Port FC's recent record stands at 8W 5D 6L from 19 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Suphanburi, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 9L across 19 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Suphanburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Port FC against 1.16 for Suphanburi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Port FC have managed 5W 2D 2L from 9 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Suphanburi's away record stands at 3W 0D 6L across 9 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Port FC are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Suphanburi are on 1.16 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Suphanburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Suphanburi in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 8W 5D 6L in their last 19 games (1.53 PPG), while Suphanburi have gone 6W 4D 9L in their last 19 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Suphanburi away?
Port FC's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 1.89 PPG; Suphanburi away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Port FC or Suphanburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Suphanburi in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Port FC
0
Draws
1
Suphanburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Suphanburi?
From 2 meetings on record, Port FC have won 1, Suphanburi have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Suphanburi last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2022, when Port FC 2-0 Suphanburi.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Suphanburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 33%, Suphanburi 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Port FC) and 67% (Suphanburi).
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Suphanburi in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Suphanburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Suphanburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Port FC's recent matches and 67% of Suphanburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Suphanburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Port FC's recent games and 67% of Suphanburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Suphanburi tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Suphanburi in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Suphanburi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Suphanburi 2-0 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.24 xG and Suphanburi 0.91 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Suphanburi landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.04 against Suphanburi attack 0.81 / defence 1.27, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 44% | Draw 29% | Suphanburi 27%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 42%, Suphanburi 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Suphanburi's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port FC 1.53 PPG, Suphanburi 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock. Port FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Suphanburi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.