Port FC 4-1 Khon Kaen United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Khon Kaen United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Port FC host Khon Kaen United at PAT Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 September 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port FC stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port FC's home record at PAT Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Port FC are significantly better at PAT Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Khon Kaen United — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Khon Kaen United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Khon Kaen United have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Port FC at 1.10 PPG versus Khon Kaen United's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Port FC have won 1, Khon Kaen United 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Port FC trading profile (32 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Khon Kaen United trading profile (32 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 50% versus Khon Kaen United 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 50% | Khon Kaen United 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.58 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.293 / defence 1.001 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.768 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.114. Port FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.293 — their λ of 1.58 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 32 Port FC games / 34 Khon Kaen United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 55% | Draw 25% | Khon Kaen United 20%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Khon Kaen United 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 40% | Khon Kaen United 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Khon Kaen United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 55% | Draw 25% | Khon Kaen United 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Port FC 1.58 / Khon Kaen United 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.293 / def 1.001 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.768 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Port FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Khon Kaen United xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Khon Kaen United kick off?
Port FC vs Khon Kaen United kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Port FC 4 - 1 Khon Kaen United.
Where is Port FC vs Khon Kaen United being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Khon Kaen United part of?
Port FC vs Khon Kaen United is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 55% chance of winning, Khon Kaen United a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Port FC and Khon Kaen United will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Khon Kaen United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Khon Kaen United?
Record (2 meetings): Port FC 1W | Draws 1 | Khon Kaen United 0W.
What form are Port FC and Khon Kaen United in?
Port FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Khon Kaen United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Port FC's attack rating (1.29) and Khon Kaen United's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Khon Kaen United's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
55%
1.83
25%
3.97
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.44
0.86
Khon Kaen United xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
4%
24.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 11.8 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Port FC and Khon Kaen United expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Port FC and 0.86 for Khon Kaen United, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Port FC come into this having played 32 games, going 12W 7D 13L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Khon Kaen United sit at 1.19 PPG from 32 outings (10W 8D 14L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port FC on 1.34 PPG, Khon Kaen United on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Port FC's home form reads 9W 4D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.34 PPG overall — Port FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Khon Kaen United have taken 0.88 points per game from 17 outings (4W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Port FC are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Khon Kaen United are on 0.91 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Early Season
Khon Kaen United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Khon Kaen United in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 12W 7D 13L in their last 32 games (1.34 PPG), while Khon Kaen United have gone 10W 8D 14L in their last 32 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Khon Kaen United away?
Port FC's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 1.82 PPG; Khon Kaen United away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Port FC or Khon Kaen United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Khon Kaen United in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Port FC and Khon Kaen United runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Sep 2023, when Port FC won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Khon Kaen United specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Port FC
2
Draws
2
Khon Kaen United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Khon Kaen United?
From 8 meetings on record, Port FC have won 4, Khon Kaen United have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Khon Kaen United last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2025, when Port FC 1-2 Khon Kaen United.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Khon Kaen United?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Port FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 35%, Khon Kaen United 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Port FC) and 47% (Khon Kaen United).
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Khon Kaen United in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Khon Kaen United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Khon Kaen United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Port FC's recent matches and 47% of Khon Kaen United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Khon Kaen United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Port FC's recent games and 47% of Khon Kaen United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Khon Kaen United tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Khon Kaen United in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Port FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Khon Kaen United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Khon Kaen United 4-1 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.58 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.86 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.29 / defence 1.00 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.77 / defence 0.98, drawn from 32/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 55% | Draw 25% | Khon Kaen United 20%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 50%, Khon Kaen United 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (32 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (32 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port FC 1.34 PPG, Khon Kaen United 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.