Port FC 1-2 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Chonburi FC travel to PAT Stadium to take on Port FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 October 2021, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port FC stand at 4W 3D 2L from 9 Thai League 1 matches — 1.67 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.56 goals per game, with 1.11 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Port FC have posted 3W 1D 1L at PAT Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chonburi FC have recorded 3W 3D 3L from 9 outings — 1.33 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Port FC at 1.67 PPG versus Chonburi FC's 1.33. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Port FC's 20% and Chonburi FC's 25% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
In-Play Data
Port FC trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Chonburi FC trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 44% versus Chonburi FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Port FC 33% | Chonburi FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.30 xG and Chonburi FC 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.049 / defence 0.994 | Chonburi FC attack 1.169 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.033 / away 1.322. Data: 9 Port FC games / 9 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 32% | Draw 25% | Chonburi FC 43%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Chonburi FC 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Form shows strong BTTS No rates for both sides but Poisson BTTS probability is 57% — current-season attack strengths are higher than recent results suggest.
Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. This conflicts with form data: Port FC 20% | Chonburi FC 25% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 32% | Draw 25% | Chonburi FC 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Port FC 1.30 / Chonburi FC 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.049 / def 0.994 | Chonburi FC attack 1.169 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.033 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Chonburi FC xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Port FC vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Chonburi FC?
Port FC 1 - 2 Chonburi FC.
Where is Port FC vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Chonburi FC part of?
Port FC vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 32% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Port FC and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Chonburi FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Port FC and Chonburi FC in?
Port FC (all comps): 4W-3D-2L in 9 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.56 / GA 1.11 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Chonburi FC (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Port FC's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Chonburi FC's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
32%
3.11
25%
4.01
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.83
1.54
Chonburi FC xG
3.11
32%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
7%
14.43
12%
8.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Port FC and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Port FC and 1.54 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Port FC come into this having played 9 games, going 4W 3D 2L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chonburi FC sit at 1.33 PPG from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port FC on 1.67 PPG, Chonburi FC on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Port FC's home form reads 3W 0D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Port FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Chonburi FC have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Port FC are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 2.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Chonburi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 4W 3D 2L in their last 9 games (1.67 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Chonburi FC away?
Port FC's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.25 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Port FC or Chonburi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Chonburi FC in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2025, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Chonburi FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Port FC
0
Draws
4
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Chonburi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Port FC have won 4, Chonburi FC have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Chonburi FC 3-2 Port FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Port FC 0% BTTS, Chonburi FC 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Port FC and 50% for Chonburi FC.
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Chonburi FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Chonburi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Port FC's recent matches and 25% of Chonburi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Port FC's recent games and 50% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chonburi FC edge out Port FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Port FC 1-2 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.30 xG and Chonburi FC 1.54 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.05 / defence 0.99 against Chonburi FC attack 1.17 / defence 1.20, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 32% | Draw 25% | Chonburi FC 43%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 33%, Chonburi FC 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port FC 1.67 PPG, Chonburi FC 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chonburi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Port FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.