Port FC 1-2 Chiangmai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Chiangmai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Port FC and Chiangmai United meet at PAT Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 February 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Port FC (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at PAT Stadium, Port FC have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Chiangmai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chiangmai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Chiangmai United have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Port FC. A 1.30 PPG lead over Chiangmai United (1.70 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Port FC lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2021, ended 2–0 with Port FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Port FC — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Chiangmai United — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 45% versus Chiangmai United 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 40% | Chiangmai United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.70 xG and Chiangmai United 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.031 / defence 0.956 | Chiangmai United attack 0.849 / defence 1.653. League average goals — home 1.000 / away 1.075. Chiangmai United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.653 — this is suppressing Port FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Port FC games / 20 Chiangmai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 57% | Draw 24% | Chiangmai United 19%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Chiangmai United 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port FC are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 30% | Chiangmai United 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Chiangmai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 57% | Draw 24% | Chiangmai United 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG Port FC 1.70 / Chiangmai United 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.031 / def 0.956 | Chiangmai United attack 0.849 / def 1.653 | league avg home 1.000 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Port FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Chiangmai United xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Chiangmai United kick off?
Port FC vs Chiangmai United kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Chiangmai United?
Port FC 1 - 2 Chiangmai United.
Where is Port FC vs Chiangmai United being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Chiangmai United part of?
Port FC vs Chiangmai United is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Chiangmai United?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 57% chance of winning, Chiangmai United a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Chiangmai United?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Port FC and Chiangmai United will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Chiangmai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Chiangmai United?
Record (1 meetings): Port FC 1W | Draws 0 | Chiangmai United 0W.
What form are Port FC and Chiangmai United in?
Port FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Chiangmai United (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Port FC's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Chiangmai United's defensive record (1.65x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. Flip it around — Chiangmai United's attack (0.85x) against Port FC's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
57%
1.75
24%
4.19
19%
5.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.58
0.87
Chiangmai United xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
5.24
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
24%
4.20
3%
28.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.3 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Chiangmai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Port FC and Chiangmai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Port FC and 0.87 for Chiangmai United, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Chiangmai United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 20 outings, Port FC have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 9W 5D 6L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chiangmai United's form line: 2W 4D 14L from 20 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Chiangmai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Port FC are the form team by 1.10 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chiangmai United.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Port FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 10 outings (6W 2D 2L).
On the road, Chiangmai United have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Port FC are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Chiangmai United are on 0.85 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Chiangmai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Chiangmai United in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 9W 5D 6L in their last 20 games (1.60 PPG), while Chiangmai United have gone 2W 4D 14L in their last 20 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Chiangmai United away?
Port FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Chiangmai United away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Port FC or Chiangmai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Chiangmai United in 5%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Port FC
0
Draws
1
Chiangmai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Chiangmai United?
From 2 meetings on record, Port FC have won 1, Chiangmai United have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Chiangmai United last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2022, when Port FC 1-2 Chiangmai United.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Chiangmai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 30%, Chiangmai United 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Port FC) and 60% (Chiangmai United).
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Chiangmai United in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Chiangmai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Chiangmai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Port FC's recent matches and 60% of Chiangmai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Chiangmai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Port FC's recent games and 60% of Chiangmai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Chiangmai United tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Chiangmai United in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chiangmai United defy the odds to beat Port FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangmai United beat Port FC 1-2 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.70 xG and Chiangmai United 0.87 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Chiangmai United outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against Chiangmai United attack 0.85 / defence 1.65, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 57% | Draw 24% | Chiangmai United 19%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Chiangmai United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 40%, Chiangmai United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Chiangmai United's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Chiangmai United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Port FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chiangmai United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.