Port FC 0-0 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Buriram United at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Buriram United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 6 as Port FC welcome Buriram United to PAT Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 12 September 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port FC at PAT Stadium this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium.
Buriram United — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Buriram United's form when playing away from home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.40 PPG (Port FC) versus 2.80 (Buriram United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Port FC, 3 for Buriram United and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Port FC in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
Buriram United in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 74% and Buriram United 51% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Port FC 74% | Buriram United 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.55 xG and Buriram United 2.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.490 / defence 0.960 | Buriram United attack 1.688 / defence 0.598. League average goals — home 1.735 / away 1.286. Port FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.490 — their λ of 1.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Buriram United's defence strength of 0.598 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.688 — the away xG of 2.08 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 Port FC games / 35 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 27% | Draw 25% | Buriram United 48%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Buriram United 2.08. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 2.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.63 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Port FC 50% | Buriram United 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 12 Sep 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 27% | Draw 25% | Buriram United 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 71% | xG Port FC 1.55 / Buriram United 2.08 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.490 / def 0.960 | Buriram United attack 1.688 / def 0.598 | league avg home 1.735 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
2.08
Buriram United xG
71%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Buriram United kick off?
Port FC vs Buriram United kicked off at 12:30 on Thursday 12 September 2024 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Buriram United?
Port FC 0 - 0 Buriram United.
Where is Port FC vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Buriram United part of?
Port FC vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 27% chance of winning, Buriram United a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Port FC and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Buriram United?
Record (6 meetings): Port FC 2W | Draws 1 | Buriram United 3W.
What form are Port FC and Buriram United in?
Port FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Buriram United (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Port FC's attack rating (1.49) and Buriram United's defence rating (0.60), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 2.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
27%
3.77
25%
3.93
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Port FC xG
Total xG
3.63
2.08
Buriram United xG
3.77
27%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.46
Clean Sheet
12%
8.03
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
3%
30.24
10%
9.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Port FC and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Port FC and 2.08 for Buriram United, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Port FC's recent record stands at 20W 10D 5L from 35 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Buriram United, meanwhile, have gone 25W 9D 1L across 35 games — 2.40 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port FC on 2.00 PPG, Buriram United on 2.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Port FC have managed 13W 1D 3L from 17 games — 2.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Buriram United's away record stands at 12W 4D 1L across 17 trips, a 2.35 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Port FC are averaging 2.51 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.54 scored and 0.83 conceded. Port FC's scoring rate against Buriram United's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Defensively: Buriram United in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Early Season
Buriram United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 20W 10D 5L in their last 35 games (2.00 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 25W 9D 1L in their last 35 (2.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Buriram United away?
Port FC's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.35 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.35 PPG.
Have Port FC or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Buriram United in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Dec 2023, when Port FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Buriram United specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Port FC
2
Draws
4
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Buriram United?
From 10 meetings on record, Port FC have won 4, Buriram United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Port FC 3-1 Buriram United.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 65%, Buriram United 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Port FC and 59% for Buriram United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 65% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Buriram United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Port FC's games and 53% of Buriram United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Port FC's matches and 59% of Buriram United's.
Do Port FC and Buriram United tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Port FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC and Buriram United finished level at 0-0 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.55 xG and Buriram United 2.08 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Port FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Buriram United landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.49 / defence 0.96 against Buriram United attack 1.69 / defence 0.60, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 27% | Draw 25% | Buriram United 48%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 74%, Buriram United 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Buriram United's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port FC 2.00 PPG, Buriram United 2.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.