Police Tero 1-0 Suphanburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Police Tero at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Police Tero vs Suphanburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Police Tero and Suphanburi meet at Boonyachinda Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 November 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Police Tero have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Police Tero at Boonyachinda Stadium this season: 2W 2D 0L from 4 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Police Tero are significantly better at Boonyachinda Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Suphanburi (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Suphanburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Suphanburi have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Police Tero's favour (1.20 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Police Tero have seen both teams score in 75% of their games, Suphanburi in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Police Tero half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Suphanburi half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Police Tero 58% and Suphanburi 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Police Tero 58% | Suphanburi 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Police Tero 1.60 xG and Suphanburi 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Police Tero attack 1.274 / defence 1.155 | Suphanburi attack 0.698 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.027 / away 1.214. Police Tero carry an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — their λ of 1.60 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Suphanburi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Police Tero's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Police Tero games / 12 Suphanburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Police Tero 52% | Draw 25% | Suphanburi 23%. Fair-value odds: Police Tero 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Suphanburi 4.35. Police Tero hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Police Tero are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Police Tero if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Police Tero 75% | Suphanburi 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Police Tero vs Suphanburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Boonyachinda Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Nov 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Police Tero 52% | Draw 25% | Suphanburi 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Police Tero 1.60 / Suphanburi 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Police Tero attack 1.274 / def 1.155 | Suphanburi attack 0.698 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.027 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Police Tero (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Police Tero xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Suphanburi xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Police Tero vs Suphanburi kick off?
Police Tero vs Suphanburi kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 13 November 2021 at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What was the final score in Police Tero vs Suphanburi?
Police Tero 1 - 0 Suphanburi.
Where is Police Tero vs Suphanburi being played?
The match is being played at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What competition is Police Tero vs Suphanburi part of?
Police Tero vs Suphanburi is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Police Tero vs Suphanburi?
Our statistical model gives Police Tero a 52% chance of winning, Suphanburi a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Police Tero the favourite.
Will both teams score in Police Tero vs Suphanburi?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Police Tero and Suphanburi will score (BTTS).
Will Police Tero vs Suphanburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Suphanburi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Police Tero and Suphanburi in?
Police Tero (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Suphanburi (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Police Tero's attack at 1.27x the league average against Suphanburi's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Suphanburi's attack (0.70x) against Police Tero's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Police Tero Win
52%
1.92
25%
4.00
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Police Tero xG
Total xG
2.58
0.98
Suphanburi xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
5%
21.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.9 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Police Tero vs Suphanburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Police Tero and Suphanburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Police Tero and 0.98 for Suphanburi, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Police Tero vs Suphanburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 12 outings, Police Tero have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 3W 4D 5L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Suphanburi's form line: 1W 4D 7L from 12 games, 0.58 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Suphanburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Police Tero are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Suphanburi.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Police Tero have posted 2.00 PPG from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Police Tero are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Suphanburi have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Suphanburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Police Tero come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Police Tero are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Suphanburi are on 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suphanburi in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Police Tero
Blended
Suphanburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Police Tero and Suphanburi in coming into this match?
Police Tero have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 games (1.08 PPG), while Suphanburi have gone 1W 4D 7L in their last 12 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Police Tero at home or Suphanburi away?
Police Tero's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Police Tero at home: 2.00 PPG; Suphanburi away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Police Tero
0
Draws
0
Suphanburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Suphanburi?
From 2 meetings on record, Police Tero have won 2, Suphanburi have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Police Tero and Suphanburi last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2022, when Suphanburi 1-2 Police Tero.
Who has won more matches between Police Tero and Suphanburi?
Police Tero have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Suphanburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Police Tero, 75% for Suphanburi — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Police Tero and 75% for Suphanburi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Police Tero home games / Suphanburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Police Tero play Suphanburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Police Tero's games and 75% of Suphanburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Police Tero vs Suphanburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Police Tero's matches and 75% of Suphanburi's.
Do Police Tero and Suphanburi tend to score early?
Police Tero have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Suphanburi in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Police Tero edge out Suphanburi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Police Tero beat Suphanburi 1-0 at Boonyachinda Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Police Tero 1.60 xG and Suphanburi 0.98 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Suphanburi landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Police Tero attack 1.27 / defence 1.16 against Suphanburi attack 0.70 / defence 1.23, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Police Tero 52% | Draw 25% | Suphanburi 23%, with Police Tero to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Police Tero 58%, Suphanburi 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Police Tero's trading profile (12 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Suphanburi's trading profile (12 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Police Tero arrived the stronger side — 1.08 PPG against 0.58. Form held, and they took the win. Police Tero (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.