Police Tero 1-0 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Police Tero vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Police Tero welcome Ratchaburi to Boonyachinda Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 February 2023 at 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Police Tero have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Police Tero at Boonyachinda Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Police Tero at 1.80 PPG versus Ratchaburi's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Police Tero have won 0, Ratchaburi 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Police Tero in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Police Tero 56% versus Ratchaburi 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Police Tero 44% | Ratchaburi 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Police Tero 0.92 xG and Ratchaburi 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Police Tero attack 0.818 / defence 0.868 | Ratchaburi attack 1.044 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.185. Data: 48 Police Tero games / 48 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Police Tero 29% | Draw 35% | Ratchaburi 37%. Fair-value odds: Police Tero 3.45 | Draw 2.86 | Ratchaburi 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Police Tero 50% | Ratchaburi 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Police Tero vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Boonyachinda Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Feb 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Police Tero 29% | Draw 35% | Ratchaburi 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Police Tero 0.92 / Ratchaburi 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Police Tero attack 0.818 / def 0.868 | Ratchaburi attack 1.044 / def 0.800 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Police Tero xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Ratchaburi xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Police Tero vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Police Tero vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 12 February 2023 at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What was the final score in Police Tero vs Ratchaburi?
Police Tero 1 - 0 Ratchaburi.
Where is Police Tero vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What competition is Police Tero vs Ratchaburi part of?
Police Tero vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Police Tero vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Police Tero a 29% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 37% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Police Tero vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Police Tero and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Police Tero vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Ratchaburi?
Record (3 meetings): Police Tero 0W | Draws 3 | Ratchaburi 0W.
What form are Police Tero and Ratchaburi in?
Police Tero (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Ratchaburi (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Police Tero's attack at 0.82x the league average against Ratchaburi's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Police Tero's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
29%
3.51
35%
2.87
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Police Tero xG
Total xG
1.99
1.07
Ratchaburi xG
3.51
29%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
10%
10.27
15%
6.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 14.6 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Police Tero vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Police Tero and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Police Tero and 1.07 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Police Tero vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Police Tero's recent record stands at 14W 19D 15L from 48 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 15L across 48 games — 1.44 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Police Tero on 1.27 PPG, Ratchaburi on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Police Tero have managed 9W 9D 5L from 23 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 6W 7D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Police Tero come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Police Tero are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.17 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Police Tero
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Police Tero and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Police Tero have gone 14W 19D 15L in their last 48 games (1.27 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 18W 15D 15L in their last 48 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Police Tero at home or Ratchaburi away?
Police Tero's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Police Tero at home: 1.57 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Police Tero and Ratchaburi runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ratchaburi have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2023, when Ratchaburi won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Police Tero's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Police Tero
3
Draws
2
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Ratchaburi?
From 6 meetings on record, Police Tero have won 1, Ratchaburi have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Police Tero and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Police Tero 0-1 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Police Tero and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Police Tero 52%, Ratchaburi 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for Police Tero and 26% for Ratchaburi.
On the defensive side: Police Tero keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Police Tero have failed to score in 26% of games; Ratchaburi in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Police Tero home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Police Tero play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Police Tero's recent matches and 39% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Police Tero vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Police Tero's recent games and 26% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Police Tero and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Police Tero have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Police Tero defy the odds to beat Ratchaburi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Police Tero beat Ratchaburi 1-0 at Boonyachinda Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Police Tero 0.92 xG and Ratchaburi 1.07 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ratchaburi landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Police Tero attack 0.82 / defence 0.87 against Ratchaburi attack 1.04 / defence 0.80, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Police Tero 29% | Draw 35% | Ratchaburi 37%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Police Tero win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Police Tero 44%, Ratchaburi 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Police Tero's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Police Tero 1.27 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Police Tero win broke the near-deadlock. Police Tero (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.