Police Tero 2-2 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Police Tero at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Police Tero vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 8 as Police Tero welcome Ratchaburi to Boonyachinda Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Police Tero have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 outings — a 1.14 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 1.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Police Tero have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 2W 2D 2L from 6 Thai League 1 matches — 1.33 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.83 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi's away record: 1W 2D 2L from 5 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Police Tero at 1.14 PPG versus Ratchaburi's 1.33. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Police Tero in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Police Tero 33% | Ratchaburi 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Police Tero 33% | Ratchaburi 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Police Tero 1.14 xG and Ratchaburi 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Police Tero attack 1.030 / defence 0.888 | Ratchaburi attack 0.632 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.027 / away 1.299. Data: 7 Police Tero games / 6 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Police Tero 44% | Draw 34% | Ratchaburi 22%. Fair-value odds: Police Tero 2.27 | Draw 2.94 | Ratchaburi 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Police Tero at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Police Tero offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.87 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Police Tero 43% | Ratchaburi 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Police Tero vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Boonyachinda Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Police Tero 44% | Draw 34% | Ratchaburi 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Police Tero 1.14 / Ratchaburi 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Police Tero attack 1.030 / def 0.888 | Ratchaburi attack 0.632 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.027 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Police Tero (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Police Tero xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Ratchaburi xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Police Tero vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Police Tero vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What was the final score in Police Tero vs Ratchaburi?
Police Tero 2 - 2 Ratchaburi.
Where is Police Tero vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What competition is Police Tero vs Ratchaburi part of?
Police Tero vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Police Tero vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Police Tero a 44% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 22% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Police Tero the favourite.
Will both teams score in Police Tero vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Police Tero and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Police Tero vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Ratchaburi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Police Tero and Ratchaburi in?
Police Tero (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.29 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.83 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Police Tero's attack at 1.03x the league average against Ratchaburi's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Police Tero's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Police Tero Win
44%
2.28
34%
2.94
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Police Tero xG
Total xG
1.87
0.73
Ratchaburi xG
2.28
44%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
7%
14.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 11.3 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Police Tero vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Police Tero and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Police Tero and 0.73 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Police Tero vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Police Tero's recent record stands at 2W 1D 3L from 6 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Police Tero, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 2L across 6 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-D-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Police Tero on 1.17 PPG, Ratchaburi on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Police Tero are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.00 scored and 0.83 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Ratchaburi in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Police Tero
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Police Tero and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Police Tero have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 games (1.17 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 (1.33 PPG).
Have Police Tero or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Police Tero have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Police Tero and Ratchaburi runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ratchaburi have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2023, when Ratchaburi won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Police Tero's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Police Tero
3
Draws
2
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Ratchaburi?
From 6 meetings on record, Police Tero have won 1, Ratchaburi have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Police Tero and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Police Tero 0-1 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Police Tero and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Police Tero 33% BTTS, Ratchaburi 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Police Tero and 17% for Ratchaburi.
On the defensive side: Police Tero keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ratchaburi in 50%; Police Tero have failed to score in 33% of games; Ratchaburi in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Police Tero home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Police Tero play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Police Tero's recent matches and 33% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Police Tero vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Police Tero's recent games and 17% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Police Tero and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Police Tero have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Police Tero and Ratchaburi share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Boonyachinda Stadium, Regular Season - 8, as Police Tero and Ratchaburi drew 2-2 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Police Tero 1.14 xG and Ratchaburi 0.73 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Police Tero beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ratchaburi outscored their 0.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Police Tero attack 1.03 / defence 0.89 against Ratchaburi attack 0.63 / defence 1.08, drawn from 7/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Police Tero 44% | Draw 34% | Ratchaburi 22%, with Police Tero to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Police Tero 33%, Ratchaburi 17%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Police Tero's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Police Tero 1.17 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Police Tero scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ratchaburi scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.