Police Tero 2-2 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Police Tero vs Buriram United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Police Tero host Buriram United at Boonyachinda Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 2 February 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Police Tero stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Boonyachinda Stadium, Police Tero have gone 4W 2D 1L this season (7 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Police Tero are significantly better at Boonyachinda Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Buriram United — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Buriram United have gone 6W 0D 3L from 9 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Buriram United are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Police Tero, 1 for Buriram United and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 1–3 with Buriram United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Police Tero trading profile (18 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Buriram United trading profile (18 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Police Tero 50% versus Buriram United 22%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Police Tero 39% | Buriram United 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Police Tero 0.84 xG and Buriram United 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Police Tero attack 0.896 / defence 1.047 | Buriram United attack 0.990 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.011 / away 1.114. Data: 18 Police Tero games / 18 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Police Tero 27% | Draw 30% | Buriram United 43%. Fair-value odds: Police Tero 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Buriram United 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Police Tero 43% | Buriram United 22% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Police Tero vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Boonyachinda Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Feb 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Police Tero 27% | Draw 30% | Buriram United 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Police Tero 0.84 / Buriram United 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Police Tero attack 0.896 / def 1.047 | Buriram United attack 0.990 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.011 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Police Tero xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Buriram United xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Police Tero vs Buriram United kick off?
Police Tero vs Buriram United kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 2 February 2022 at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What was the final score in Police Tero vs Buriram United?
Police Tero 2 - 2 Buriram United.
Where is Police Tero vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What competition is Police Tero vs Buriram United part of?
Police Tero vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Police Tero vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Police Tero a 27% chance of winning, Buriram United a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Police Tero vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Police Tero and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Police Tero vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Buriram United?
Record (1 meetings): Police Tero 0W | Draws 0 | Buriram United 1W.
What form are Police Tero and Buriram United in?
Police Tero (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Buriram United (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Police Tero's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Buriram United's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Police Tero's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
27%
3.74
30%
3.30
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Police Tero xG
Total xG
2.00
1.15
Buriram United xG
3.74
27%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
8%
11.84
18%
5.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 15.6 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Police Tero vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Police Tero and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Police Tero and 1.15 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Police Tero vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Police Tero come into this having played 18 games, going 5W 7D 6L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-D. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Buriram United sit at 2.28 PPG from 18 outings (13W 2D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.06 PPG clear of Police Tero — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Police Tero's home form reads 4W 2D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Police Tero are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Buriram United have taken 2.14 points per game from 7 outings (5W 0D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Police Tero are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 1.67 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Buriram United in 22%.
Defensively: Buriram United in 61% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Police Tero
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Police Tero and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Police Tero have gone 5W 7D 6L in their last 18 games (1.22 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 13W 2D 3L in their last 18 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Police Tero at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Police Tero at home: 2.00 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Police Tero or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Police Tero have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Buriram United in 61%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Police Tero and Buriram United runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Buriram United go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2024, when Buriram United won 6-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Police Tero's record when hosting Buriram United specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Police Tero
1
Draws
5
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Buriram United?
From 6 meetings on record, Police Tero have won 0, Buriram United have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Police Tero and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Buriram United 6-2 Police Tero.
Who has won more matches between Police Tero and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Buriram United tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Police Tero 43%, Buriram United 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Police Tero and 29% for Buriram United.
On the defensive side: Police Tero keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Buriram United in 43%; Buriram United in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Police Tero home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Police Tero play Buriram United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Police Tero's recent matches and 29% of Buriram United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Police Tero vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Police Tero's recent games and 29% of Buriram United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Police Tero and Buriram United tend to score early?
Police Tero have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 29% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Police Tero and Buriram United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Boonyachinda Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Police Tero and Buriram United drew 2-2 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Police Tero 0.84 xG and Buriram United 1.15 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Police Tero beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Buriram United outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Police Tero attack 0.90 / defence 1.05 against Buriram United attack 0.99 / defence 0.93, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Police Tero 27% | Draw 30% | Buriram United 43%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Police Tero 39%, Buriram United 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Police Tero's trading profile (18 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Buriram United's trading profile (18 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Police Tero (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Buriram United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.