Police Tero 1-0 Bangkok United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bangkok United at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Police Tero vs Bangkok United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Police Tero host Bangkok United at Boonyachinda Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Police Tero — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Boonyachinda Stadium, Police Tero have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bangkok United stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Bangkok United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bangkok United have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bangkok United — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Police Tero, 2 for Bangkok United and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 1–4 with Bangkok United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Police Tero in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bangkok United in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Police Tero 60% versus Bangkok United 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Police Tero 45% | Bangkok United 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Police Tero 0.85 xG and Bangkok United 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Police Tero attack 0.986 / defence 1.108 | Bangkok United attack 0.969 / defence 0.665. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.234. Bangkok United's defence strength of 0.665 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Police Tero games / 42 Bangkok United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Police Tero 23% | Draw 30% | Bangkok United 47%. Fair-value odds: Police Tero 4.35 | Draw 3.33 | Bangkok United 2.13. Bangkok United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bangkok United at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bangkok United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Police Tero 70% | Bangkok United 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Police Tero vs Bangkok United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Boonyachinda Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Police Tero 23% | Draw 30% | Bangkok United 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Police Tero 0.85 / Bangkok United 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Police Tero attack 0.986 / def 1.108 | Bangkok United attack 0.969 / def 0.665 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Bangkok United (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Police Tero xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Bangkok United xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Police Tero vs Bangkok United kick off?
Police Tero vs Bangkok United kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What was the final score in Police Tero vs Bangkok United?
Police Tero 1 - 0 Bangkok United.
Where is Police Tero vs Bangkok United being played?
The match is being played at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What competition is Police Tero vs Bangkok United part of?
Police Tero vs Bangkok United is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Police Tero vs Bangkok United?
Our statistical model gives Police Tero a 23% chance of winning, Bangkok United a 47% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bangkok United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Police Tero vs Bangkok United?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Police Tero and Bangkok United will score (BTTS).
Will Police Tero vs Bangkok United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Bangkok United?
Record (2 meetings): Police Tero 0W | Draws 0 | Bangkok United 2W.
What form are Police Tero and Bangkok United in?
Police Tero (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Bangkok United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Police Tero's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Bangkok United's defensive record (0.67x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, Bangkok United's attack versus Police Tero's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bangkok United Win
23%
4.27
30%
3.39
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Police Tero xG
Total xG
2.18
1.32
Bangkok United xG
4.27
23%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
6%
16.07
20%
4.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Police Tero vs Bangkok United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Police Tero and Bangkok United expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Police Tero and 1.32 for Bangkok United, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Police Tero vs Bangkok United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Police Tero have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 12W 16D 14L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bangkok United's form line: 23W 10D 9L from 42 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Bangkok United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bangkok United are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Police Tero.
Venue Form
On home soil, Police Tero have posted 1.43 PPG from 21 outings (7W 9D 5L).
On the road, Bangkok United have gone 9W 4D 8L from 21 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Police Tero are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Bangkok United are on 1.76 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Bangkok United in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Police Tero
Blended
Bangkok United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Police Tero and Bangkok United in coming into this match?
Police Tero have gone 12W 16D 14L in their last 42 games (1.24 PPG), while Bangkok United have gone 23W 10D 9L in their last 42 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Police Tero at home or Bangkok United away?
Bangkok United's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Police Tero at home: 1.43 PPG; Bangkok United away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Police Tero or Bangkok United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Police Tero have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Bangkok United in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2021, when Bangkok United won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Police Tero's record when hosting Bangkok United specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Police Tero
1
Draws
3
Bangkok United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Bangkok United?
From 6 meetings on record, Police Tero have won 2, Bangkok United have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Police Tero and Bangkok United last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2024, when Police Tero 3-0 Bangkok United.
Who has won more matches between Police Tero and Bangkok United?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bangkok United see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Police Tero 62%, Bangkok United 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Police Tero) and 33% (Bangkok United).
On the defensive side: Bangkok United in 33%; Bangkok United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Police Tero home games / Bangkok United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Police Tero play Bangkok United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Police Tero's recent matches and 38% of Bangkok United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Police Tero vs Bangkok United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Police Tero's recent games and 33% of Bangkok United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Police Tero and Bangkok United tend to score early?
Police Tero have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Bangkok United in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Police Tero defy the odds to beat Bangkok United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Police Tero beat Bangkok United 1-0 at Boonyachinda Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Police Tero 0.85 xG and Bangkok United 1.32 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bangkok United landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Police Tero attack 0.99 / defence 1.11 against Bangkok United attack 0.97 / defence 0.67, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Police Tero 23% | Draw 30% | Bangkok United 47%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Police Tero win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Police Tero 45%, Bangkok United 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Police Tero's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Bangkok United's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Police Tero winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Police Tero (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Bangkok United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.