Pattani vs Ratchaburi – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pattani vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pattani and Ratchaburi meet at Rainbow Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 May 2027 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Pattani's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games (1.33 PPG). Last five: D W L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Ratchaburi have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ratchaburi are 0.67 PPG clear of Pattani in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (2.00 vs 1.33). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Pattani — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pattani 33% versus Ratchaburi 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pattani 67% | Ratchaburi 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattani 0.78 xG and Ratchaburi 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattani attack 0.605 / defence 1.204 | Ratchaburi attack 1.019 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.222. Pattani's attack strength of 0.605 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Pattani games / 33 Ratchaburi games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pattani 19% | Draw 26% | Ratchaburi 54%. Fair-value odds: Pattani 5.26 | Draw 3.85 | Ratchaburi 1.85. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Pattani 33% | Ratchaburi 80%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattani vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Rainbow Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattani 19% | Draw 26% | Ratchaburi 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 42% | xG Pattani 0.78 / Ratchaburi 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Pattani attack 0.605 / def 1.204 | Ratchaburi attack 1.019 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Pattani xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Ratchaburi xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattani vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Pattani vs Ratchaburi is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Sunday 9 May 2027 at Rainbow Stadium.
Where is Pattani vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Rainbow Stadium.
What competition is Pattani vs Ratchaburi part of?
Pattani vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattani vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Pattani a 19% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 54% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattani vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Pattani and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Pattani vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Ratchaburi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pattani and Ratchaburi in?
Pattani (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-W-L. Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pattani's attack at 0.60x the league average against Ratchaburi's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (1.02x) against Pattani's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
The sample (3/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
19%
5.13
26%
3.82
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Pattani xG
Total xG
2.28
1.50
Ratchaburi xG
5.13
19%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
4%
23.01
25%
4.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 15.3 | 11.5 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattani vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Pattani and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Pattani and 1.50 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattani vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 3 outings, Pattani have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 1W 1D 1L record — D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ratchaburi's form line: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Pattani against 1.33 for Ratchaburi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pattani are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ratchaburi in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattani
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattani and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Pattani have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Pattani or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pattani have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pattani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pattani 33%, Ratchaburi 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Pattani) and 33% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Pattani keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ratchaburi in 33%; Pattani have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattani home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattani play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Pattani's recent matches and 67% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pattani vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Pattani's recent games and 33% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pattani and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Pattani have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.