Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nong Bua Pitchaya at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nong Bua Pitchaya host Nakhon Ratchasima FC at Pitchaya Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 February 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Pitchaya Stadium, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nong Bua Pitchaya at 0.60 PPG versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Nong Bua Pitchaya, 1 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Nakhon Ratchasima FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Nong Bua Pitchaya in-play tendencies (48 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play tendencies (48 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nong Bua Pitchaya 56% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nong Bua Pitchaya 50% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.39 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.877 / defence 1.032 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.665 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.201. Data: 48 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 48 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 49% | Draw 31% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4.76. Nong Bua Pitchaya hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nong Bua Pitchaya are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nong Bua Pitchaya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nong Bua Pitchaya 50% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 49% | Draw 31% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.39 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.877 / def 1.032 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.665 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Nong Bua Pitchaya (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 1 - 1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 49% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Nong Bua Pitchaya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Record (3 meetings): Nong Bua Pitchaya 2W | Draws 0 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1W.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nong Bua Pitchaya's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack versus Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya Win
49%
2.05
31%
3.27
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
2.21
0.82
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
5%
19.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.5 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 0.82 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent record stands at 15W 12D 21L from 48 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC, meanwhile, have gone 14W 11D 23L across 48 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nong Bua Pitchaya on 1.19 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nong Bua Pitchaya have managed 10W 5D 7L from 22 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Nong Bua Pitchaya are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's away record stands at 4W 4D 14L across 22 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nong Bua Pitchaya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 0.96 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 15W 12D 21L in their last 48 games (1.19 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 14W 11D 23L in their last 48 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home: 1.59 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Ratchasima FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2022, when Nong Bua Pitchaya won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's record when hosting Nakhon Ratchasima FC specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Nong Bua Pitchaya
2
Draws
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 2, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nong Bua Pitchaya 46%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Nong Bua Pitchaya) and 50% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
On the defensive side: Nong Bua Pitchaya keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Nong Bua Pitchaya have failed to score in 32% of games; Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent matches and 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent games and 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Ratchasima FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Ratchasima FC finished level at 1-1 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.39 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.82 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.88 / defence 1.03 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.67 / defence 1.15, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 49% | Draw 31% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 21%, with Nong Bua Pitchaya to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 50%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (48 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (48 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.19 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.