Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-2 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Muangthong United at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Muangthong United make the trip to Pitchaya Stadium to face Nong Bua Pitchaya in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 November 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nong Bua Pitchaya have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nong Bua Pitchaya at Pitchaya Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Nong Bua Pitchaya are significantly better at Pitchaya Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Muangthong United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Muangthong United's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Muangthong United are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nong Bua Pitchaya lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Nong Bua Pitchaya goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Muangthong United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nong Bua Pitchaya 52% versus Muangthong United 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nong Bua Pitchaya 48% | Muangthong United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.08 xG and Muangthong United 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.834 / defence 0.847 | Muangthong United attack 1.069 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.228. Data: 42 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 42 Muangthong United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 34% | Draw 30% | Muangthong United 36%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Muangthong United 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Muangthong United as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Muangthong United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nong Bua Pitchaya 20% | Muangthong United 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 34% | Draw 30% | Muangthong United 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.08 / Muangthong United 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.834 / def 0.847 | Muangthong United attack 1.069 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Muangthong United xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 2 - 2 Muangthong United.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 34% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United?
Record (2 meetings): Nong Bua Pitchaya 0W | Draws 2 | Muangthong United 0W.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Muangthong United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack at 0.83x the league average against Muangthong United's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Muangthong United's attack (1.07x) against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
34%
2.91
30%
3.34
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
2.20
1.11
Muangthong United xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
11%
8.85
12%
8.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.4 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1.11 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nong Bua Pitchaya come into this having played 42 games, going 15W 9D 18L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Muangthong United sit at 1.50 PPG from 42 outings (16W 15D 11L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Nong Bua Pitchaya against 1.50 for Muangthong United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home form reads 11W 3D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Nong Bua Pitchaya are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Muangthong United have taken 0.95 points per game from 21 outings (4W 8D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Muangthong United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nong Bua Pitchaya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.55 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United in 62%.
Last 42 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
Muangthong United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 15W 9D 18L in their last 42 games (1.29 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 16W 15D 11L in their last 42 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home or Muangthong United away?
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home: 1.71 PPG; Muangthong United away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Muangthong United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
4
Draws
2
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United?
From 6 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 0, Muangthong United have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Muangthong United 2-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Who has won more matches between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Muangthong United see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nong Bua Pitchaya 33%, Muangthong United 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 29% for Muangthong United.
On the defensive side: Nong Bua Pitchaya keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Nong Bua Pitchaya have failed to score in 38% of games; Muangthong United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Muangthong United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent matches and 48% of Muangthong United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent games and 29% of Muangthong United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Muangthong United in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United finished level at 2-2 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.08 xG and Muangthong United 1.11 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Nong Bua Pitchaya beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Muangthong United outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.83 / defence 0.85 against Muangthong United attack 1.07 / defence 1.01, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 34% | Draw 30% | Muangthong United 36%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 48%, Muangthong United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Muangthong United's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.29 PPG, Muangthong United 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Muangthong United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.