Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-1 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Buriram United (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Nong Bua Pitchaya face Buriram United.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nong Bua Pitchaya and Buriram United meet at Pitchaya Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 March 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nong Bua Pitchaya have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nong Bua Pitchaya have posted 3W 4D 3L at Pitchaya Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Buriram United (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 2.80 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United's form when playing away from home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Buriram United are the stronger side — 1.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Nong Bua Pitchaya, 2 for Buriram United and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 1–3 with Buriram United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Nong Bua Pitchaya — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Buriram United — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nong Bua Pitchaya 60% versus Buriram United 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nong Bua Pitchaya 52% | Buriram United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.03 xG and Buriram United 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.904 / defence 1.040 | Buriram United attack 1.526 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.133. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.526 — the away xG of 1.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 52 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 20% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 54%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 5.00 | Draw 3.85 | Buriram United 1.85. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Buriram United are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Buriram United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Nong Bua Pitchaya 60% | Buriram United 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 20% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.03 / Buriram United 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.904 / def 1.040 | Buriram United attack 1.526 / def 0.816 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Buriram United xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Buriram United kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Buriram United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Buriram United?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 0 - 1 Buriram United.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Buriram United part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 20% chance of winning, Buriram United a 54% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Buriram United?
Record (3 meetings): Nong Bua Pitchaya 0W | Draws 1 | Buriram United 2W.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Buriram United in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Buriram United (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Nong Bua Pitchaya's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Buriram United's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. Flip it around — Buriram United's attack (1.53x) against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.80.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
20%
5.01
26%
3.81
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
2.83
1.80
Buriram United xG
5.01
20%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
17%
6.04
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
3%
30.22
19%
5.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1.80 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent record stands at 17W 13D 22L from 52 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United, meanwhile, have gone 37W 9D 6L across 52 games — 2.31 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Buriram United by 1.08 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nong Bua Pitchaya heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Nong Bua Pitchaya have managed 12W 6D 8L from 26 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Buriram United's away record stands at 18W 4D 4L across 26 trips, a 2.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.00 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 17W 13D 22L in their last 52 games (1.23 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 37W 9D 6L in their last 52 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home: 1.62 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.23 PPG.
Have Nong Bua Pitchaya or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Buriram United in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Buriram United have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won 7-0 on 30 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Buriram United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1
Draws
5
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Buriram United?
From 6 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 0, Buriram United have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2025, when Buriram United 7-0 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Who has won more matches between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nong Bua Pitchaya 46%, Buriram United 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Nong Bua Pitchaya) and 50% (Buriram United).
On the defensive side: Nong Bua Pitchaya keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Buriram United in 50%; Nong Bua Pitchaya have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Buriram United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent matches and 38% of Buriram United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent games and 50% of Buriram United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Buriram United tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Buriram United edge out Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-1 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.03 xG and Buriram United 1.80 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nong Bua Pitchaya fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.90 / defence 1.04 against Buriram United attack 1.53 / defence 0.82, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 20% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 54%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 52%, Buriram United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Buriram United's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.