Nong Bua Pitchaya 3-1 BG Pathum United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BG Pathum United at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees BG Pathum United travel to Pitchaya Stadium to take on Nong Bua Pitchaya. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 17 November 2021, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nong Bua Pitchaya stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record at Pitchaya Stadium: 5W 0D 2L from 7 Thai League 1 appearances (2.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.14 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Nong Bua Pitchaya are significantly better at Pitchaya Stadium than their overall form suggests.
BG Pathum United — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BG Pathum United's away record: 2W 2D 0L from 4 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. BG Pathum United are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Nong Bua Pitchaya in-play and half-time data (12 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
BG Pathum United in-play and half-time data (12 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nong Bua Pitchaya 50% versus BG Pathum United 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nong Bua Pitchaya 33% | BG Pathum United 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.95 xG and BG Pathum United 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.025 / defence 0.973 | BG Pathum United attack 0.939 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.013 / away 1.179. Data: 12 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 12 BG Pathum United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 32% | Draw 30% | BG Pathum United 38%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | BG Pathum United 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BG Pathum United at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Nong Bua Pitchaya 43% | BG Pathum United 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 Nov 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 32% | Draw 30% | BG Pathum United 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.95 / BG Pathum United 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.025 / def 0.973 | BG Pathum United attack 0.939 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.013 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
1.08
BG Pathum United xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United kicked off at 12:00 on Wednesday 17 November 2021 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3 - 1 BG Pathum United.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 32% chance of winning, BG Pathum United a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and BG Pathum United will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and BG Pathum United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and BG Pathum United in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. BG Pathum United (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack rating (1.02) and BG Pathum United's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BG Pathum United's attack versus Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
32%
3.17
30%
3.28
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
2.03
1.08
BG Pathum United xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
11%
9.31
15%
6.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 14.1 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and BG Pathum United expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1.08 for BG Pathum United, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nong Bua Pitchaya come into this having played 12 games, going 5W 3D 4L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, BG Pathum United sit at 2.17 PPG from 12 outings (8W 2D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BG Pathum United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Nong Bua Pitchaya — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home form reads 3W 0D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Nong Bua Pitchaya are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, BG Pathum United have taken 2.00 points per game from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L).
The Goals Picture
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; BG Pathum United are on 1.25 scored and 0.75 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: BG Pathum United in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
BG Pathum United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and BG Pathum United in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 games (1.50 PPG), while BG Pathum United have gone 8W 2D 2L in their last 12 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home or BG Pathum United away?
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home: 2.25 PPG; BG Pathum United away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Nong Bua Pitchaya or BG Pathum United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, BG Pathum United in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nong Bua Pitchaya and BG Pathum United runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's record when hosting BG Pathum United specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Nong Bua Pitchaya
3
Draws
0
BG Pathum United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and BG Pathum United?
From 6 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 3, BG Pathum United have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and BG Pathum United last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-1 BG Pathum United.
Who has won more matches between Nong Bua Pitchaya and BG Pathum United?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
BG Pathum United see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nong Bua Pitchaya 75%, BG Pathum United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Nong Bua Pitchaya) and 25% (BG Pathum United).
On the defensive side: BG Pathum United in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / BG Pathum United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play BG Pathum United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's games and 50% of BG Pathum United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs BG Pathum United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent games and 25% of BG Pathum United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and BG Pathum United tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, BG Pathum United in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nong Bua Pitchaya cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over BG Pathum United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nong Bua Pitchaya beat BG Pathum United 3-1 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.95 xG and BG Pathum United 1.08 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Nong Bua Pitchaya beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.02 / defence 0.97 against BG Pathum United attack 0.94 / defence 0.92, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 32% | Draw 30% | BG Pathum United 38%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Nong Bua Pitchaya win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 33%, BG Pathum United 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (12 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
BG Pathum United's trading profile (12 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Nong Bua Pitchaya winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.