Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-2 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Prachuap make the trip to His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium to face Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 January 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have posted 3W 4D 3L at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Prachuap's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Nakhon Ratchasima FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Prachuap in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nakhon Ratchasima FC lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Nakhon Ratchasima FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Prachuap — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 49% versus Prachuap 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 47% | Prachuap 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.60 xG and Prachuap 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.901 / defence 1.053 | Prachuap attack 0.967 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.170. Prachuap bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Nakhon Ratchasima FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 45 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 46% | Draw 26% | Prachuap 28%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Prachuap 3.57. Nakhon Ratchasima FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nakhon Ratchasima FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 60% | Prachuap 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Jan 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 46% | Draw 26% | Prachuap 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.60 / Prachuap 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.901 / def 1.053 | Prachuap attack 0.967 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Ratchasima FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Prachuap xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 21 January 2023 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1 - 2 Prachuap.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 46% chance of winning, Prachuap a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Ratchasima FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap?
Record (3 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2W | Draws 0 | Prachuap 1W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Prachuap (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Prachuap's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — Prachuap's attack (0.97x) against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Win
46%
2.16
26%
3.88
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.79
1.19
Prachuap xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
6%
17.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.7 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1.19 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nakhon Ratchasima FC come into this having played 45 games, going 14W 11D 20L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Prachuap sit at 0.98 PPG from 45 outings (11W 11D 23L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Nakhon Ratchasima FC against 0.98 for Prachuap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home form reads 8W 7D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Prachuap have taken 0.86 points per game from 22 outings (5W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Ratchasima FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.07 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 14W 11D 20L in their last 45 games (1.18 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 11W 11D 23L in their last 45 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Prachuap away?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.41 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Prachuap have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Prachuap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2
Draws
4
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap?
From 8 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, Prachuap have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-2 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Prachuap see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 46%, Prachuap 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 64% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Nakhon Ratchasima FC have failed to score in 27% of games; Prachuap in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Prachuap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent matches and 59% of Prachuap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 64% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Prachuap defy the odds to beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-2 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.60 xG and Prachuap 1.19 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Prachuap outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.05 against Prachuap attack 0.97 / defence 1.32, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 46% | Draw 26% | Prachuap 28%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Prachuap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 47%, Prachuap 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Prachuap's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.18 PPG, Prachuap 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.