Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-2 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nakhon Ratchasima FC host Lamphun Warrior at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 September 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Nakhon Ratchasima FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 0W 1D 4L from 5 Thai League 1 matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 2L across 3 road games this term (0.33 PPG).
On current form, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play tendencies (5 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games.
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (5 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 60% | Lamphun Warrior 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 60% | Lamphun Warrior 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.09 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.997 / defence 1.094 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.560 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.099. Data: 35 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 5 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 45% | Draw 32% | Lamphun Warrior 22%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Lamphun Warrior 4.55. Nakhon Ratchasima FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Lamphun Warrior's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nakhon Ratchasima FC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nakhon Ratchasima FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.77 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% | Lamphun Warrior 0% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 45% | Draw 32% | Lamphun Warrior 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 33% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.09 / Lamphun Warrior 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.997 / def 1.094 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.560 / def 0.808 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Ratchasima FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Lamphun Warrior xG
33%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2 - 2 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 45% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Ratchasima FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating (1.00) and Lamphun Warrior's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.0%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Win
45%
2.20
32%
3.11
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
1.77
0.67
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.06
67%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
8%
13.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.1 | 11.5 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 12.6 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 0.67 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent record stands at 2W 1D 2L from 5 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lamphun Warrior, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 4L across 5 games — 0.20 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nakhon Ratchasima FC by 1.20 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lamphun Warrior heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lamphun Warrior's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Ratchasima FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Ratchasima FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Lamphun Warrior in 0%.
Last 5 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Early Season
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 (0.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.33 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2025, when Lamphun Warrior won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
4
Draws
2
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior?
From 6 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 0, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-1 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nakhon Ratchasima FC see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Lamphun Warrior tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 100%, Lamphun Warrior 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 0% for Lamphun Warrior.
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior in 33%; Lamphun Warrior in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent matches and 0% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 0% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior drew 2-2 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.09 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.67 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lamphun Warrior outscored their 0.67 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.09 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.56 / defence 0.81, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 45% | Draw 32% | Lamphun Warrior 22%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 60%, Lamphun Warrior 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (5 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (5 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nakhon Ratchasima FC arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.