Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-4 BG Pathum United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
BG Pathum United make the trip to His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium to face Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 November 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
BG Pathum United have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BG Pathum United's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. BG Pathum United are 0.50 PPG clear of Nakhon Ratchasima FC in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, 1 for BG Pathum United and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 0–3 with BG Pathum United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
BG Pathum United — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 54% versus BG Pathum United 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 49% | BG Pathum United 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.34 xG and BG Pathum United 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.995 / defence 1.027 | BG Pathum United attack 0.858 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.191. Data: 41 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 41 BG Pathum United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 42% | Draw 30% | BG Pathum United 28%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | BG Pathum United 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form BG Pathum United (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nakhon Ratchasima FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 60% | BG Pathum United 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 42% | Draw 30% | BG Pathum United 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.34 / BG Pathum United 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.995 / def 1.027 | BG Pathum United attack 0.858 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Ratchasima FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
1.05
BG Pathum United xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0 - 4 BG Pathum United.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 42% chance of winning, BG Pathum United a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Ratchasima FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and BG Pathum United will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and BG Pathum United?
Record (2 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0W | Draws 1 | BG Pathum United 1W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and BG Pathum United in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. BG Pathum United (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating (0.99) and BG Pathum United's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — BG Pathum United's attack (0.86x) against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Win
42%
2.38
30%
3.35
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.39
1.05
BG Pathum United xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
7%
13.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and BG Pathum United expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1.05 for BG Pathum United, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 13W 11D 17L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BG Pathum United's form line: 22W 12D 7L from 41 games, 1.90 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, BG Pathum United are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have posted 1.40 PPG from 20 outings (7W 7D 6L).
On the road, BG Pathum United have gone 5W 10D 5L from 20 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BG Pathum United's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; BG Pathum United are on 1.73 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
BG Pathum United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and BG Pathum United in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 13W 11D 17L in their last 41 games (1.22 PPG), while BG Pathum United have gone 22W 12D 7L in their last 41 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or BG Pathum United away?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.40 PPG; BG Pathum United away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Nakhon Ratchasima FC or BG Pathum United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, BG Pathum United in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: BG Pathum United have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: BG Pathum United won 0-4 on 5 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against BG Pathum United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1
Draws
6
BG Pathum United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and BG Pathum United?
From 8 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, BG Pathum United have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and BG Pathum United last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when BG Pathum United 1-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and BG Pathum United?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%, BG Pathum United 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 40% (BG Pathum United).
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; BG Pathum United in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / BG Pathum United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play BG Pathum United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent matches and 55% of BG Pathum United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 40% of BG Pathum United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and BG Pathum United tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, BG Pathum United in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant BG Pathum United run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BG Pathum United beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-4 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.34 xG and BG Pathum United 1.05 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. BG Pathum United outscored their 1.05 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.03 against BG Pathum United attack 0.86 / defence 1.05, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 42% | Draw 30% | BG Pathum United 28%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual BG Pathum United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 49%, BG Pathum United 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
BG Pathum United's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.