Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-0 BG Pathum United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BG Pathum United at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
BG Pathum United make the trip to His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium to face Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Wednesday 10 November 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium: 4W 0D 1L from 5 Thai League 1 appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Nakhon Ratchasima FC are significantly better at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium than their overall form suggests.
BG Pathum United have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BG Pathum United's away record: 2W 1D 0L from 3 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. BG Pathum United are 0.50 PPG clear of Nakhon Ratchasima FC in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (2.20 vs 1.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — key trading statistics (10 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 30% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
BG Pathum United — key trading statistics (10 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 60% versus BG Pathum United 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 40% | BG Pathum United 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.12 xG and BG Pathum United 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.019 / defence 0.978 | BG Pathum United attack 1.021 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 1.275. Data: 11 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 10 BG Pathum United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 32% | Draw 28% | BG Pathum United 40%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | BG Pathum United 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BG Pathum United at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 40% | BG Pathum United 67%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 Nov 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 32% | Draw 28% | BG Pathum United 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.12 / BG Pathum United 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.019 / def 0.978 | BG Pathum United attack 1.021 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.091 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
1.27
BG Pathum United xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 10 November 2021 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0 - 0 BG Pathum United.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 32% chance of winning, BG Pathum United a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and BG Pathum United will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and BG Pathum United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and BG Pathum United in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. BG Pathum United (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating (1.02) and BG Pathum United's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — BG Pathum United's attack (1.02x) against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 11/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
32%
3.08
28%
3.62
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.39
1.27
BG Pathum United xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
9%
10.99
13%
7.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and BG Pathum United expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1.27 for BG Pathum United, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 10 outings, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 5W 2D 3L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BG Pathum United's form line: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games, 2.20 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, BG Pathum United are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L).
On the road, BG Pathum United have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; BG Pathum United are on 1.40 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Ratchasima FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: BG Pathum United in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
BG Pathum United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and BG Pathum United in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 games (1.70 PPG), while BG Pathum United have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or BG Pathum United away?
BG Pathum United's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 2.00 PPG; BG Pathum United away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Nakhon Ratchasima FC or BG Pathum United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, BG Pathum United in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: BG Pathum United have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: BG Pathum United won 0-4 on 5 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against BG Pathum United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1
Draws
6
BG Pathum United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and BG Pathum United?
From 8 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, BG Pathum United have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and BG Pathum United last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when BG Pathum United 1-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and BG Pathum United?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 33%, BG Pathum United 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 33% for BG Pathum United.
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; BG Pathum United in 33%; Nakhon Ratchasima FC have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / BG Pathum United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play BG Pathum United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent matches and 67% of BG Pathum United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs BG Pathum United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 33% of BG Pathum United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and BG Pathum United tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, BG Pathum United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nakhon Ratchasima FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC and BG Pathum United finished level at 0-0 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.12 xG and BG Pathum United 1.27 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. BG Pathum United landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.98 against BG Pathum United attack 1.02 / defence 1.01, drawn from 11/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 32% | Draw 28% | BG Pathum United 40%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 40%, BG Pathum United 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (10 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
BG Pathum United's trading profile (10 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.70. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.