Muangthong United 2-1 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Muangthong United at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
SCG Stadium plays host to Muangthong United versus Ratchaburi in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Friday 24 September 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Muangthong United have collected 1.00 PPG across 2 Thai League 1 outings this season: 0W 2D 0L. Last five: D D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Muangthong United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games (1.33 PPG). Last five: W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi away from home this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Muangthong United, 1.33 for Ratchaburi — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 1.34 xG and Ratchaburi 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 1.141 / defence 1.371 | Ratchaburi attack 0.682 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.194. Data: 2 Muangthong United games / 3 Ratchaburi games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 38% | Draw 34% | Ratchaburi 27%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Ratchaburi 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Muangthong United as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Muangthong United if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: SCG Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 38% | Draw 34% | Ratchaburi 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Muangthong United 1.34 / Ratchaburi 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 1.141 / def 1.371 | Ratchaburi attack 0.682 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Ratchaburi xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 24 September 2021 at SCG Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi?
Muangthong United 2 - 1 Ratchaburi.
Where is Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at SCG Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi part of?
Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 38% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 27% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Muangthong United and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Ratchaburi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Muangthong United and Ratchaburi in?
Muangthong United (all comps): 0W-2D-0L in 2 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-D. Ratchaburi (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Muangthong United's attack rating (1.14) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (0.68x) against Muangthong United's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
The sample (2/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
38%
2.61
34%
2.92
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
2.46
1.12
Ratchaburi xG
2.61
38%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
13%
7.96
7%
13.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.8 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Muangthong United and 1.12 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 2 outings, Muangthong United have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 2D 0L record — D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Muangthong United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ratchaburi's form line: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-D. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Muangthong United are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ratchaburi.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Muangthong United are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Muangthong United's scoring rate against Ratchaburi's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Ratchaburi in 0%.
Defensively: Ratchaburi in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Muangthong United and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 games (1.00 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Muangthong United or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Muangthong United have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Ratchaburi go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Muangthong United won 4-0 on 12 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Muangthong United have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Muangthong United
1
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Muangthong United have won 5, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Ratchaburi 3-2 Muangthong United.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Ratchaburi?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Muangthong United play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Muangthong United's recent matches and 0% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Muangthong United's recent games and 0% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Muangthong United and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Muangthong United have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Muangthong United edge out Ratchaburi 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Muangthong United beat Ratchaburi 2-1 at SCG Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.34 xG and Ratchaburi 1.12 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.14 / defence 1.37 against Ratchaburi attack 0.68 / defence 0.88, drawn from 2/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 38% | Draw 34% | Ratchaburi 27%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 100%, Ratchaburi 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Muangthong United arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Muangthong United conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Ratchaburi scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.