Muangthong United 3-1 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Muangthong United at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lamphun Warrior make the trip to Thunder Dome Stadium to face Muangthong United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Tuesday 4 April 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Muangthong United (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Thunder Dome Stadium, Muangthong United have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thunder Dome Stadium.
Lamphun Warrior have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Muangthong United's favour (2.30 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Muangthong United lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 5–0 with Muangthong United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Muangthong United — key trading statistics (24 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (24 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 30% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Muangthong United 54% versus Lamphun Warrior 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Muangthong United 54% | Lamphun Warrior 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 1.75 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 1.257 / defence 0.927 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.653 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.141. Muangthong United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — their λ of 1.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 54 Muangthong United games / 24 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 62% | Draw 24% | Lamphun Warrior 14%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | Lamphun Warrior 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Muangthong United (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Muangthong United are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Muangthong United 40% | Lamphun Warrior 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Thunder Dome Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 Apr 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 62% | Draw 24% | Lamphun Warrior 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 42% | xG Muangthong United 1.75 / Lamphun Warrior 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 1.257 / def 0.927 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.653 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Lamphun Warrior xG
42%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 12:30 on Tuesday 4 April 2023 at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Muangthong United 3 - 1 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 62% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (1 meetings): Muangthong United 1W | Draws 0 | Lamphun Warrior 0W.
What form are Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior in?
Muangthong United (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Muangthong United's attack at 1.26x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lamphun Warrior's attack (0.65x) against Muangthong United's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 54/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.3%), 1-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
62%
1.60
24%
4.23
14%
7.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
2.44
0.69
Lamphun Warrior xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
7.17
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
31%
3.20
2%
41.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 10.5 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Muangthong United and 0.69 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Muangthong United's recent record stands at 10W 8D 6L from 24 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamphun Warrior, meanwhile, have gone 5W 9D 10L across 24 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Muangthong United by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lamphun Warrior heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Muangthong United have managed 5W 4D 1L from 10 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lamphun Warrior's away record stands at 2W 3D 5L across 10 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Muangthong United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Muangthong United are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 0.71 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior in 29%.
Defensively: Muangthong United have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 10W 8D 6L in their last 24 games (1.58 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 5W 9D 10L in their last 24 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Muangthong United at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Muangthong United's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Muangthong United at home: 1.90 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Muangthong United or Lamphun Warrior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Muangthong United have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Lamphun Warrior in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Muangthong United won 0-5 on 30 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Muangthong United have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Muangthong United
2
Draws
1
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior?
From 8 meetings on record, Muangthong United have won 5, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Muangthong United 1-1 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Muangthong United see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Lamphun Warrior tend to start slowly — only 30% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Muangthong United) and 30% (Lamphun Warrior) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Muangthong United and 20% for Lamphun Warrior.
On the defensive side: Muangthong United keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Lamphun Warrior in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Muangthong United play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Muangthong United's recent matches and 30% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Muangthong United's recent games and 20% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Muangthong United and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Muangthong United have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 30% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Muangthong United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lamphun Warrior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Muangthong United beat Lamphun Warrior 3-1 at Thunder Dome Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.75 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.69 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Muangthong United beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.26 / defence 0.93 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.65 / defence 1.02, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 62% | Draw 24% | Lamphun Warrior 14%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 54%, Lamphun Warrior 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Muangthong United's trading profile (24 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (24 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Muangthong United arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Muangthong United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.