Muangthong United 1-5 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Muangthong United and Chonburi FC meet at Thunder Dome Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 September 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Muangthong United have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Muangthong United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Muangthong United have posted 6W 3D 1L at Thunder Dome Stadium — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Muangthong United are significantly better at Thunder Dome Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chonburi FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Chonburi FC have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Muangthong United, 1.90 for Chonburi FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Muangthong United register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Chonburi FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Muangthong United 0W, Chonburi FC 0W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Muangthong United half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Chonburi FC half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Muangthong United 66% and Chonburi FC 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Muangthong United 46% | Chonburi FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 1.25 xG and Chonburi FC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 1.082 / defence 0.997 | Chonburi FC attack 1.129 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.167. Data: 35 Muangthong United games / 35 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 35% | Draw 27% | Chonburi FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Chonburi FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Muangthong United 80% | Chonburi FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Thunder Dome Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 35% | Draw 27% | Chonburi FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Muangthong United 1.25 / Chonburi FC 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 1.082 / def 0.997 | Chonburi FC attack 1.129 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Chonburi FC xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC?
Muangthong United 1 - 5 Chonburi FC.
Where is Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC part of?
Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 35% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Muangthong United and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Chonburi FC?
Record (2 meetings): Muangthong United 0W | Draws 2 | Chonburi FC 0W.
What form are Muangthong United and Chonburi FC in?
Muangthong United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Chonburi FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Muangthong United's attack at 1.08x the league average against Chonburi FC's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chonburi FC's attack (1.13x) against Muangthong United's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
35%
2.84
27%
3.76
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
2.56
1.31
Chonburi FC xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
9%
10.54
11%
9.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.1 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.6 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Muangthong United and 1.31 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, Muangthong United have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 14W 13D 8L record — L-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Muangthong United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chonburi FC's form line: 16W 8D 11L from 35 games, 1.60 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Muangthong United against 1.60 for Chonburi FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Muangthong United have posted 2.24 PPG from 17 outings (11W 5D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Muangthong United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 6W 4D 7L from 17 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Muangthong United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Muangthong United are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.66 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Chonburi FC in 63%.
Last 35 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Early Season
Chonburi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Muangthong United and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 14W 13D 8L in their last 35 games (1.57 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 16W 8D 11L in their last 35 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Muangthong United at home or Chonburi FC away?
Muangthong United's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Muangthong United at home: 2.24 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Muangthong United won 6-0 on 18 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Muangthong United have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Chonburi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Muangthong United
3
Draws
3
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Chonburi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Muangthong United have won 2, Chonburi FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Chonburi FC 0-0 Muangthong United.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Chonburi FC?
Chonburi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 82% for Muangthong United, 59% for Chonburi FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Muangthong United and 59% for Chonburi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Muangthong United play Chonburi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Muangthong United's games and 59% of Chonburi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Muangthong United's matches and 59% of Chonburi FC's.
Do Muangthong United and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Muangthong United have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chonburi FC run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Muangthong United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Muangthong United 1-5 at Thunder Dome Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.25 xG and Chonburi FC 1.31 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Chonburi FC outscored their 1.31 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.08 / defence 1.00 against Chonburi FC attack 1.13 / defence 0.84, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 35% | Draw 27% | Chonburi FC 38%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 46%, Chonburi FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Muangthong United's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Muangthong United 1.57 PPG, Chonburi FC 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chonburi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.