Muangthong United 3-3 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Muangthong United at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Muangthong United and Chonburi FC meet at SCG Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 September 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Muangthong United have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 Thai League 1 outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Muangthong United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Muangthong United, 1.00 for Chonburi FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Muangthong United register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Chonburi FC in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 1.38 xG and Chonburi FC 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 0.963 / defence 1.150 | Chonburi FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.408. Data: 1 Muangthong United games / 1 Chonburi FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 34% | Draw 33% | Chonburi FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Chonburi FC 2.94. The draw (33%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 33% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: SCG Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 34% | Draw 33% | Chonburi FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 60% | xG Muangthong United 1.38 / Chonburi FC 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 0.963 / def 1.150 | Chonburi FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Draw (33%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Chonburi FC xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at SCG Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC?
Muangthong United 3 - 3 Chonburi FC.
Where is Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at SCG Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC part of?
Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 34% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Muangthong United and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Chonburi FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Muangthong United and Chonburi FC in?
Muangthong United (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D. Chonburi FC (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Muangthong United's attack at 0.96x the league average against Chonburi FC's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chonburi FC's attack (0.85x) against Muangthong United's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
34%
2.96
33%
3.05
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
2.76
1.38
Chonburi FC xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
9%
11.74
8%
11.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Muangthong United and 1.38 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, Muangthong United have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Muangthong United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chonburi FC's form line: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Muangthong United against 1.00 for Chonburi FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Muangthong United are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Muangthong United's scoring rate against Chonburi FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Chonburi FC in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Early Season
Chonburi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Muangthong United and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Muangthong United won 6-0 on 18 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Muangthong United have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Chonburi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Muangthong United
3
Draws
3
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Chonburi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Muangthong United have won 2, Chonburi FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Chonburi FC 0-0 Muangthong United.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Chonburi FC?
Chonburi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Muangthong United play Chonburi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Muangthong United's games and 100% of Chonburi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Muangthong United vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Muangthong United's recent games and 0% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Muangthong United and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Muangthong United have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Muangthong United and Chonburi FC share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at SCG Stadium, Regular Season - 2, as Muangthong United and Chonburi FC drew 3-3 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.38 xG and Chonburi FC 1.38 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Muangthong United beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chonburi FC outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Chonburi FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 34% | Draw 33% | Chonburi FC 34%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 100%, Chonburi FC 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Muangthong United 1.00 PPG, Chonburi FC 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Muangthong United scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chonburi FC scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.