Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi meet at 700th Anniversary Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 January 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lamphun Warrior's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 1D 4L this season (6 games, 0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.67 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at 700th Anniversary Stadium this season.
Ratchaburi have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Lamphun Warrior, 1.30 for Ratchaburi — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Lamphun Warrior, 1 for Ratchaburi and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Ratchaburi winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (16 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (16 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Lamphun Warrior 31% | Ratchaburi 38%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lamphun Warrior 25% | Ratchaburi 12%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 0.88 xG and Ratchaburi 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.805 / defence 1.286 | Ratchaburi attack 1.085 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.233. Data: 16 Lamphun Warrior games / 46 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 18% | Draw 25% | Ratchaburi 57%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 5.56 | Draw 4.00 | Ratchaburi 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 33% | Ratchaburi 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jan 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 18% | Draw 25% | Ratchaburi 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Lamphun Warrior 0.88 / Ratchaburi 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.805 / def 1.286 | Ratchaburi attack 1.085 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Ratchaburi xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 29 January 2023 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi?
Lamphun Warrior 1 - 1 Ratchaburi.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 18% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 57% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi?
Record (1 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 0W | Draws 0 | Ratchaburi 1W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Ratchaburi (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (0.81) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (1.08x) against Lamphun Warrior's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 16/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-2 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
18%
5.46
25%
3.97
57%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.60
1.72
Ratchaburi xG
5.46
18%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
1.77
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
18%
5.58
41%
2.41
Win to Nil
3%
30.48
23%
4.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 12.8 | 11.0 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.72 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lamphun Warrior's recent record stands at 3W 5D 8L from 16 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 3L across 16 games — 1.81 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ratchaburi by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lamphun Warrior heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lamphun Warrior have managed 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 3W 1D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.31 scored and 0.62 conceded.
Defensively: Ratchaburi in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 3W 5D 8L in their last 16 games (0.88 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 8W 5D 3L in their last 16 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Ratchaburi away?
Ratchaburi's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 0.67 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Lamphun Warrior or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamphun Warrior have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ratchaburi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ratchaburi won 5-0 on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Lamphun Warrior
3
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 1-2 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Lamphun Warrior) and 33% (Ratchaburi) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Lamphun Warrior and 17% for Ratchaburi.
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi in 33%; Lamphun Warrior have failed to score in 67% of games; Ratchaburi in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 33% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 17% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi finished level at 1-1 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 0.88 xG and Ratchaburi 1.72 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.81 / defence 1.29 against Ratchaburi attack 1.08 / defence 0.81, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 18% | Draw 25% | Ratchaburi 57%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 19% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 25%, Ratchaburi 12%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (16 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (16 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.