Lamphun Warrior 1-0 Nong Bua Pitchaya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
700th Anniversary Stadium plays host to Lamphun Warrior versus Nong Bua Pitchaya in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 18 March 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lamphun Warrior have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Lamphun Warrior have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Lamphun Warrior, 0.90 for Nong Bua Pitchaya — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Lamphun Warrior 1W, Nong Bua Pitchaya 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Lamphun Warrior winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 61% of games.
Nong Bua Pitchaya — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 30% versus Nong Bua Pitchaya 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lamphun Warrior 26% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.23 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.784 / defence 1.019 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.054 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.125. Lamphun Warrior's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Lamphun Warrior games / 53 Nong Bua Pitchaya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 35% | Draw 31% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 34%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 40% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 35% | Draw 31% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.23 / Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.784 / def 1.019 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.054 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Lamphun Warrior 1 - 0 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 35% chance of winning, Nong Bua Pitchaya a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Nong Bua Pitchaya will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Record (1 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 1W | Draws 0 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 0W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Nong Bua Pitchaya in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (0.78) and Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack (1.05x) against Lamphun Warrior's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 23/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
35%
2.84
31%
3.26
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.44
1.21
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
11%
9.52
10%
10.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.5 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Nong Bua Pitchaya expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.21 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, Lamphun Warrior have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 4W 9D 10L record — W-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's form line: 4W 5D 14L from 23 games, 0.74 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for Lamphun Warrior against 0.74 for Nong Bua Pitchaya. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1.00 PPG from 11 outings (2W 5D 4L).
On the road, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 1W 1D 9L from 11 away games — 0.36 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Nong Bua Pitchaya are on 0.91 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nong Bua Pitchaya in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Nong Bua Pitchaya in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 9D 10L in their last 23 games (0.91 PPG), while Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 4W 5D 14L in their last 23 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Nong Bua Pitchaya away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.00 PPG; Nong Bua Pitchaya away: 0.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nong Bua Pitchaya — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Lamphun Warrior
2
Draws
0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
From 4 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Nong Bua Pitchaya last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-0 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 36%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Lamphun Warrior) and 73% (Nong Bua Pitchaya).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior have failed to score in 54% of games; Nong Bua Pitchaya in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Nong Bua Pitchaya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 73% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 73% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Nong Bua Pitchaya tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lamphun Warrior edge out Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-0 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.23 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.21 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nong Bua Pitchaya landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.78 / defence 1.02 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.05 / defence 1.13, drawn from 23/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 35% | Draw 31% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 34%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 26%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 0.91 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.