Lampang FC 1-3 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Police Tero at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lampang FC vs Police Tero fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lampang FC and Police Tero meet at Lampang Provincial Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lampang FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 1D 6L from 9 games (0.78 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.78 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lampang FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lampang FC have posted 2W 0D 2L at Lampang Provincial Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.78 — Lampang FC are significantly better at Lampang Provincial Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Police Tero have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Police Tero's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.78 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Lampang FC half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Police Tero half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lampang FC 44% versus Police Tero 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lampang FC 56% | Police Tero 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lampang FC 1.08 xG and Police Tero 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lampang FC attack 0.762 / defence 1.343 | Police Tero attack 1.215 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.123. Lampang FC's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Police Tero have an above-average attack strength of 1.215 — the away xG of 1.83 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 9 Lampang FC games / 39 Police Tero games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lampang FC 22% | Draw 23% | Police Tero 55%. Fair-value odds: Lampang FC 4.55 | Draw 4.35 | Police Tero 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Police Tero (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Police Tero are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Lampang FC 25% | Police Tero 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lampang FC vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Lampang Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lampang FC 22% | Draw 23% | Police Tero 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG Lampang FC 1.08 / Police Tero 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Lampang FC attack 0.762 / def 1.343 | Police Tero attack 1.215 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Police Tero (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Lampang FC xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Police Tero xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lampang FC vs Police Tero kick off?
Lampang FC vs Police Tero kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Lampang Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Lampang FC vs Police Tero?
Lampang FC 1 - 3 Police Tero.
Where is Lampang FC vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at Lampang Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Lampang FC vs Police Tero part of?
Lampang FC vs Police Tero is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lampang FC vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives Lampang FC a 22% chance of winning, Police Tero a 55% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Police Tero the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lampang FC vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Lampang FC and Police Tero will score (BTTS).
Will Lampang FC vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lampang FC and Police Tero?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lampang FC and Police Tero in?
Lampang FC (all comps): 2W-1D-6L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Police Tero (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lampang FC's attack rating (0.76) and Police Tero's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Police Tero's attack (1.22x) against Lampang FC's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Police Tero Win
22%
4.52
23%
4.38
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Lampang FC xG
Total xG
2.91
1.83
Police Tero xG
4.52
22%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
16%
6.25
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
4%
28.24
19%
5.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lampang FC vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Lampang FC and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Lampang FC and 1.83 for Police Tero, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Lampang FC vs Police Tero?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lampang FC's recent record stands at 2W 1D 6L from 9 games, a 0.78 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Lampang FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Police Tero, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 4L across 9 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.78 PPG for Lampang FC against 1.00 for Police Tero. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lampang FC have managed 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.78 PPG overall — Lampang FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Police Tero's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lampang FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lampang FC are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Police Tero are on 1.22 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Police Tero in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lampang FC
Blended
Police Tero
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lampang FC and Police Tero in coming into this match?
Lampang FC have gone 2W 1D 6L in their last 9 games (0.78 PPG), while Police Tero have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lampang FC at home or Police Tero away?
Lampang FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lampang FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Police Tero away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Lampang FC
1
Draws
1
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lampang FC and Police Tero?
From 2 meetings on record, Lampang FC have won 0, Police Tero have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lampang FC and Police Tero last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2023, when Police Tero 1-1 Lampang FC.
Who has won more matches between Lampang FC and Police Tero?
Police Tero have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lampang FC tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lampang FC 25%, Police Tero 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lampang FC) and 50% (Police Tero).
On the defensive side: Lampang FC have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lampang FC home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lampang FC play Police Tero?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Lampang FC's recent matches and 75% of Police Tero's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lampang FC vs Police Tero usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lampang FC's recent games and 50% of Police Tero's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lampang FC and Police Tero tend to score early?
Lampang FC have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Police Tero in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Police Tero cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Lampang FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Police Tero beat Lampang FC 1-3 at Lampang Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lampang FC 1.08 xG and Police Tero 1.83 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Police Tero outscored their 1.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lampang FC attack 0.76 / defence 1.34 against Police Tero attack 1.22 / defence 1.10, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lampang FC 22% | Draw 23% | Police Tero 55%, with Police Tero to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lampang FC 56%, Police Tero 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lampang FC's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Police Tero's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lampang FC 0.78 PPG, Police Tero 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Police Tero win broke the near-deadlock. Lampang FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Police Tero (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.