Khon Kaen United 2-0 Suphanburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suphanburi at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khon Kaen United vs Suphanburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Suphanburi travel to Khon Kaen Stadium to take on Khon Kaen United. The game is scheduled for Friday 28 January 2022, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khon Kaen United stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khon Kaen United's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 3L across 9 games at Khon Kaen Stadium this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Suphanburi have recorded 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Suphanburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suphanburi's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 5L across 8 road games this term (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Khon Kaen United 1.40 PPG, Suphanburi 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Khon Kaen United have won 1, Suphanburi 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 4–2 with Khon Kaen United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Khon Kaen United in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Suphanburi in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khon Kaen United 31% versus Suphanburi 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khon Kaen United 31% | Suphanburi 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 0.82 xG and Suphanburi 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.699 / defence 1.129 | Suphanburi attack 0.844 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 0.988 / away 1.135. Khon Kaen United's attack strength of 0.699 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Khon Kaen United games / 16 Suphanburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 27% | Draw 31% | Suphanburi 41%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | Suphanburi 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suphanburi at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suphanburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates are neutral: Khon Kaen United 33% | Suphanburi 62%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khon Kaen United vs Suphanburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Khon Kaen Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 Jan 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 27% | Draw 31% | Suphanburi 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Khon Kaen United 0.82 / Suphanburi 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Khon Kaen United attack 0.699 / def 1.129 | Suphanburi attack 0.844 / def 1.186 | league avg home 0.988 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Suphanburi (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Khon Kaen United xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Suphanburi xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khon Kaen United vs Suphanburi kick off?
Khon Kaen United vs Suphanburi kicked off at 11:00 on Friday 28 January 2022 at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What was the final score in Khon Kaen United vs Suphanburi?
Khon Kaen United 2 - 0 Suphanburi.
Where is Khon Kaen United vs Suphanburi being played?
The match is being played at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What competition is Khon Kaen United vs Suphanburi part of?
Khon Kaen United vs Suphanburi is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Khon Kaen United vs Suphanburi?
Our statistical model gives Khon Kaen United a 27% chance of winning, Suphanburi a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Suphanburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khon Kaen United vs Suphanburi?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Khon Kaen United and Suphanburi will score (BTTS).
Will Khon Kaen United vs Suphanburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Suphanburi?
Record (1 meetings): Khon Kaen United 1W | Draws 0 | Suphanburi 0W.
What form are Khon Kaen United and Suphanburi in?
Khon Kaen United (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Suphanburi (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Khon Kaen United's attack at 0.70x the league average against Suphanburi's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Suphanburi's attack versus Khon Kaen United's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suphanburi Win
27%
3.66
31%
3.18
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Khon Kaen United xG
Total xG
1.90
1.08
Suphanburi xG
3.66
27%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
9%
10.78
18%
5.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 16.2 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khon Kaen United vs Suphanburi?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Khon Kaen United and Suphanburi expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 1.08 for Suphanburi, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Khon Kaen United vs Suphanburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 16 outings, Khon Kaen United have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 5W 3D 8L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Suphanburi's form line: 4W 4D 8L from 16 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Suphanburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khon Kaen United on 1.12 PPG, Suphanburi on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Khon Kaen United have posted 1.29 PPG from 7 outings (2W 3D 2L).
On the road, Suphanburi have gone 2W 0D 5L from 7 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khon Kaen United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Khon Kaen United are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Suphanburi are on 1.12 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suphanburi in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khon Kaen United
Blended
Suphanburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khon Kaen United and Suphanburi in coming into this match?
Khon Kaen United have gone 5W 3D 8L in their last 16 games (1.12 PPG), while Suphanburi have gone 4W 4D 8L in their last 16 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khon Kaen United at home or Suphanburi away?
Khon Kaen United's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khon Kaen United at home: 1.29 PPG; Suphanburi away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Khon Kaen United or Suphanburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khon Kaen United have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Suphanburi in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Khon Kaen United
0
Draws
0
Suphanburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Suphanburi?
From 2 meetings on record, Khon Kaen United have won 2, Suphanburi have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Khon Kaen United and Suphanburi last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2022, when Khon Kaen United 2-0 Suphanburi.
Who has won more matches between Khon Kaen United and Suphanburi?
Khon Kaen United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khon Kaen United see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Suphanburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khon Kaen United 29%, Suphanburi 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 14% (Khon Kaen United) and 71% (Suphanburi).
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Khon Kaen United have failed to score in 43% of games; Suphanburi in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khon Kaen United home games / Suphanburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khon Kaen United play Suphanburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Khon Kaen United's recent matches and 71% of Suphanburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khon Kaen United vs Suphanburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Khon Kaen United's recent games and 71% of Suphanburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khon Kaen United and Suphanburi tend to score early?
Khon Kaen United have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Suphanburi in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khon Kaen United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Suphanburi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khon Kaen United beat Suphanburi 2-0 at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 0.82 xG and Suphanburi 1.08 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Khon Kaen United beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Suphanburi landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.70 / defence 1.13 against Suphanburi attack 0.84 / defence 1.19, drawn from 18/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 27% | Draw 31% | Suphanburi 41%, with Suphanburi to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Khon Kaen United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 31%, Suphanburi 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Suphanburi's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khon Kaen United 1.12 PPG, Suphanburi 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khon Kaen United win broke the near-deadlock. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Suphanburi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.