Khon Kaen United 0-2 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khon Kaen United vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Khon Kaen United and Ratchaburi meet at Khon Kaen Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 September 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 1.16 xG and Ratchaburi 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Ratchaburi attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.346. Data: 0 Khon Kaen United games / 0 Ratchaburi games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 29% | Draw 35% | Ratchaburi 36%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 3.45 | Draw 2.86 | Ratchaburi 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khon Kaen United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Khon Kaen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Sep 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 29% | Draw 35% | Ratchaburi 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG Khon Kaen United 1.16 / Ratchaburi 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Khon Kaen United attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Ratchaburi attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Khon Kaen United xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Ratchaburi xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khon Kaen United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Khon Kaen United vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 September 2021 at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What was the final score in Khon Kaen United vs Ratchaburi?
Khon Kaen United 0 - 2 Ratchaburi.
Where is Khon Kaen United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What competition is Khon Kaen United vs Ratchaburi part of?
Khon Kaen United vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Khon Kaen United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Khon Kaen United a 29% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 36% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khon Kaen United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Khon Kaen United and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Khon Kaen United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Ratchaburi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Khon Kaen United and Ratchaburi in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Khon Kaen United's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (0.85x) against Khon Kaen United's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
29%
3.47
35%
2.88
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Khon Kaen United xG
Total xG
2.47
1.32
Ratchaburi xG
3.47
29%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
8%
12.93
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.1 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khon Kaen United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Khon Kaen United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 1.32 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Khon Kaen United vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khon Kaen United
Pre-Season
Ratchaburi
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Ratchaburi have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ratchaburi won 4-7 on 6 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khon Kaen United have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Khon Kaen United
1
Draws
6
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Ratchaburi?
From 8 meetings on record, Khon Kaen United have won 1, Ratchaburi have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Khon Kaen United and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Khon Kaen United 4-7 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Khon Kaen United and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khon Kaen United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Ratchaburi cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Khon Kaen United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Khon Kaen United 0-2 at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 1.16 xG and Ratchaburi 1.32 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Khon Kaen United fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Ratchaburi attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 29% | Draw 35% | Ratchaburi 36%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.