Khon Kaen United 1-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 6 as Khon Kaen United welcome Nakhon Ratchasima FC to Khon Kaen Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 6 October 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Khon Kaen United have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Khon Kaen United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Khon Kaen United's form when playing at home: 1W 0D 2L across 3 games at Khon Kaen Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 3.33 conceded per game.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — All Games: 2W 1D 2L from 5 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Nakhon Ratchasima FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's away record: 0W 1D 2L from 3 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Nakhon Ratchasima FC are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Khon Kaen United in-play and half-time data (5 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play and half-time data (5 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khon Kaen United 40% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khon Kaen United 60% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 1.19 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.732 / defence 1.757 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.785 / defence 1.408. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.330. Khon Kaen United's attack strength of 0.732 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Nakhon Ratchasima FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.408 — this is suppressing Khon Kaen United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Khon Kaen United games / 5 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 22% | Draw 29% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 4.55 | Draw 3.45 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.00. Nakhon Ratchasima FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.19 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nakhon Ratchasima FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Khon Kaen United 33% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Khon Kaen Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Oct 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 22% | Draw 29% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Khon Kaen United 1.19 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Khon Kaen United attack 0.732 / def 1.757 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.785 / def 1.408 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Ratchasima FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Khon Kaen United xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 13:00 on Wednesday 6 October 2021 at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What was the final score in Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Khon Kaen United 1 - 1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What competition is Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Khon Kaen United a 22% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 50% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Ratchasima FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Khon Kaen United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Khon Kaen United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Khon Kaen United (all comps): 1W-0D-4L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Khon Kaen United's attack at 0.73x the league average against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack versus Khon Kaen United's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Win
22%
4.62
29%
3.48
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Khon Kaen United xG
Total xG
3.02
1.83
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
4.62
22%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
16%
6.26
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
3%
28.91
15%
6.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.0 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Khon Kaen United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 1.83 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Khon Kaen United's recent record stands at 1W 0D 4L from 5 games, a 0.60 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 2L across 5 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nakhon Ratchasima FC by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khon Kaen United heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Khon Kaen United have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.60 PPG overall — Khon Kaen United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khon Kaen United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Khon Kaen United are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 60%.
Last 5 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khon Kaen United
Early Season
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khon Kaen United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Khon Kaen United have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 games (0.60 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khon Kaen United at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Khon Kaen United's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khon Kaen United at home: 1.00 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Khon Kaen United's record when hosting Nakhon Ratchasima FC specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Khon Kaen United
2
Draws
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Khon Kaen United have won 2, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khon Kaen United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3-1 Khon Kaen United.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khon Kaen United 33%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Khon Kaen United) and 33% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United have failed to score in 67% of games; Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khon Kaen United home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khon Kaen United play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Khon Kaen United's recent matches and 67% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Khon Kaen United's recent games and 33% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khon Kaen United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Khon Kaen United have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khon Kaen United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Khon Kaen United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 1.19 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.83 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.73 / defence 1.76 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.79 / defence 1.41, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 22% | Draw 29% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 60%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (5 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (5 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nakhon Ratchasima FC arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.33 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.