Khon Kaen United 0-0 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Khon Kaen United at 35%, yet in-form Chiangrai United provide a compelling counter-argument — this Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 6 as Khon Kaen United welcome Chiangrai United to Khon Kaen Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 September 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khon Kaen United stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Khon Kaen United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Khon Kaen United at Khon Kaen Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Khon Kaen Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Khon Kaen United are significantly better at Khon Kaen Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chiangrai United — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Chiangrai United have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Chiangrai United are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Khon Kaen United, 2 for Chiangrai United and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Chiangrai United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Khon Kaen United trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Chiangrai United trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khon Kaen United 43% versus Chiangrai United 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khon Kaen United 40% | Chiangrai United 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 1.01 xG and Chiangrai United 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.780 / defence 0.934 | Chiangrai United attack 0.957 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.116. Khon Kaen United's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Khon Kaen United games / 35 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 35% | Draw 31% | Chiangrai United 34%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Chiangrai United 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Khon Kaen United as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Chiangrai United (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khon Kaen United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Khon Kaen United 30% | Chiangrai United 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Khon Kaen Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 16 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 35% | Draw 31% | Chiangrai United 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Khon Kaen United 1.01 / Chiangrai United 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Khon Kaen United attack 0.780 / def 0.934 | Chiangrai United attack 0.957 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Khon Kaen United (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Khon Kaen United xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Chiangrai United xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 16 September 2022 at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What was the final score in Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United?
Khon Kaen United 0 - 0 Chiangrai United.
Where is Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What competition is Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United part of?
Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Khon Kaen United a 35% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Khon Kaen United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United?
Record (2 meetings): Khon Kaen United 0W | Draws 0 | Chiangrai United 2W.
What form are Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United in?
Khon Kaen United (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Chiangrai United (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Khon Kaen United's attack at 0.78x the league average against Chiangrai United's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Khon Kaen United's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khon Kaen United Win
35%
2.87
31%
3.25
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Khon Kaen United xG
Total xG
2.00
1.00
Chiangrai United xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
37%
2.74
Win to Nil
13%
7.78
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 1.00 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Khon Kaen United come into this having played 35 games, going 11W 8D 16L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.69 PPG from 35 outings (17W 8D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chiangrai United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Khon Kaen United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Khon Kaen United's home form reads 7W 5D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 1.94 points per game from 17 outings (10W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Khon Kaen United are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.23 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Chiangrai United in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khon Kaen United
Early Season
Chiangrai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Khon Kaen United have gone 11W 8D 16L in their last 35 games (1.17 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 17W 8D 10L in their last 35 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khon Kaen United at home or Chiangrai United away?
Chiangrai United's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khon Kaen United at home: 1.53 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Khon Kaen United or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khon Kaen United have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Khon Kaen United's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Khon Kaen United
2
Draws
5
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United?
From 8 meetings on record, Khon Kaen United have won 1, Chiangrai United have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when Khon Kaen United 3-1 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khon Kaen United 35%, Chiangrai United 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Khon Kaen United) and 41% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Chiangrai United in 41%; Khon Kaen United have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khon Kaen United home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khon Kaen United play Chiangrai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Khon Kaen United's recent matches and 47% of Chiangrai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Khon Kaen United's recent games and 41% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Khon Kaen United have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Khon Kaen United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United finished level at 0-0 at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 1.01 xG and Chiangrai United 1.00 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Khon Kaen United fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Chiangrai United landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.78 / defence 0.93 against Chiangrai United attack 0.96 / defence 0.94, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 35% | Draw 31% | Chiangrai United 34%, with Khon Kaen United to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 40%, Chiangrai United 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Chiangrai United arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.