Khon Kaen United 2-2 BG Pathum United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates BG Pathum United at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khon Kaen United vs BG Pathum United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees BG Pathum United travel to Khon Kaen Stadium to take on Khon Kaen United. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 February 2022, 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Khon Kaen United — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Khon Kaen United have posted 4W 3D 3L at Khon Kaen Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, BG Pathum United stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, BG Pathum United have posted 2W 5D 2L from 9 away outings — 1.22 PPG. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Khon Kaen United at 1.70 PPG versus BG Pathum United's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Khon Kaen United have won 0, BG Pathum United 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with BG Pathum United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Khon Kaen United in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BG Pathum United in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khon Kaen United 32% versus BG Pathum United 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Khon Kaen United 32% | BG Pathum United 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 0.92 xG and BG Pathum United 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.793 / defence 1.031 | BG Pathum United attack 0.839 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.021 / away 1.125. Khon Kaen United's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 Khon Kaen United games / 19 BG Pathum United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 32% | Draw 32% | BG Pathum United 36%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | BG Pathum United 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BG Pathum United at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.89 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Khon Kaen United 30% | BG Pathum United 56% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khon Kaen United vs BG Pathum United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Khon Kaen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 32% | Draw 32% | BG Pathum United 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Khon Kaen United 0.92 / BG Pathum United 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Khon Kaen United attack 0.793 / def 1.031 | BG Pathum United attack 0.839 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.021 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Khon Kaen United xG
Expected Goals
0.97
BG Pathum United xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khon Kaen United vs BG Pathum United kick off?
Khon Kaen United vs BG Pathum United kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What was the final score in Khon Kaen United vs BG Pathum United?
Khon Kaen United 2 - 2 BG Pathum United.
Where is Khon Kaen United vs BG Pathum United being played?
The match is being played at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What competition is Khon Kaen United vs BG Pathum United part of?
Khon Kaen United vs BG Pathum United is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Khon Kaen United vs BG Pathum United?
Our statistical model gives Khon Kaen United a 32% chance of winning, BG Pathum United a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khon Kaen United vs BG Pathum United?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Khon Kaen United and BG Pathum United will score (BTTS).
Will Khon Kaen United vs BG Pathum United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and BG Pathum United?
Record (1 meetings): Khon Kaen United 0W | Draws 0 | BG Pathum United 1W.
What form are Khon Kaen United and BG Pathum United in?
Khon Kaen United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. BG Pathum United (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Khon Kaen United's attack rating (0.79) and BG Pathum United's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BG Pathum United's attack versus Khon Kaen United's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
32%
3.08
32%
3.13
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Khon Kaen United xG
Total xG
1.89
0.97
BG Pathum United xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
14%
7.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 14.7 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khon Kaen United vs BG Pathum United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Khon Kaen United and BG Pathum United expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 0.97 for BG Pathum United, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Khon Kaen United vs BG Pathum United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Khon Kaen United have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 7W 3D 9L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BG Pathum United's form line: 9W 6D 4L from 19 games, 1.74 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-W. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, BG Pathum United are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Khon Kaen United.
Venue Form
On home soil, Khon Kaen United have posted 1.67 PPG from 9 outings (4W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Khon Kaen United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, BG Pathum United have gone 2W 5D 2L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BG Pathum United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khon Kaen United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Khon Kaen United are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; BG Pathum United are on 1.26 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: BG Pathum United in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khon Kaen United
Blended
BG Pathum United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khon Kaen United and BG Pathum United in coming into this match?
Khon Kaen United have gone 7W 3D 9L in their last 19 games (1.26 PPG), while BG Pathum United have gone 9W 6D 4L in their last 19 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khon Kaen United at home or BG Pathum United away?
Khon Kaen United's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khon Kaen United at home: 1.67 PPG; BG Pathum United away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Khon Kaen United or BG Pathum United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khon Kaen United have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, BG Pathum United in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
BG Pathum United have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2024, when BG Pathum United won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khon Kaen United's record when hosting BG Pathum United specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Khon Kaen United
3
Draws
5
BG Pathum United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and BG Pathum United?
From 8 meetings on record, Khon Kaen United have won 0, BG Pathum United have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Khon Kaen United and BG Pathum United last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when BG Pathum United 4-1 Khon Kaen United.
Who has won more matches between Khon Kaen United and BG Pathum United?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khon Kaen United see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khon Kaen United 33%, BG Pathum United 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Khon Kaen United and 33% for BG Pathum United.
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; BG Pathum United in 33%; Khon Kaen United have failed to score in 33% of games; BG Pathum United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khon Kaen United home games / BG Pathum United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khon Kaen United play BG Pathum United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Khon Kaen United's recent matches and 56% of BG Pathum United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khon Kaen United vs BG Pathum United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Khon Kaen United's recent games and 33% of BG Pathum United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khon Kaen United and BG Pathum United tend to score early?
Khon Kaen United have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, BG Pathum United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khon Kaen United and BG Pathum United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 19, as Khon Kaen United and BG Pathum United drew 2-2 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 0.92 xG and BG Pathum United 0.97 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Khon Kaen United beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. BG Pathum United outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.79 / defence 1.03 against BG Pathum United attack 0.84 / defence 1.13, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 32% | Draw 32% | BG Pathum United 36%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 32%, BG Pathum United 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
BG Pathum United's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.