Chonburi FC 3-2 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Port FC travel to Chonburi Stadium to take on Chonburi FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 January 2022, 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chonburi FC — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC at Chonburi Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Port FC have gone 3W 3D 2L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chonburi FC at 2.10 PPG versus Port FC's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Chonburi FC, 0 for Port FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Chonburi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Chonburi FC trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Port FC trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 53% versus Port FC 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 53% | Port FC 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.27 xG and Port FC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 1.220 / defence 0.962 | Port FC attack 0.947 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 0.993 / away 1.083. Data: 18 Chonburi FC games / 17 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 43% | Draw 28% | Port FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Port FC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chonburi FC 60% | Port FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Chonburi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jan 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 43% | Draw 28% | Port FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Chonburi FC 1.27 / Port FC 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 1.220 / def 0.962 | Port FC attack 0.947 / def 1.045 | league avg home 0.993 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Port FC xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Port FC kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Port FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 30 January 2022 at Chonburi Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Port FC?
Chonburi FC 3 - 2 Port FC.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Port FC part of?
Chonburi FC vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 43% chance of winning, Port FC a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Chonburi FC and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Port FC?
Record (1 meetings): Chonburi FC 1W | Draws 0 | Port FC 0W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Port FC in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Port FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Chonburi FC's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
43%
2.34
28%
3.53
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.25
0.99
Port FC xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
8%
12.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.4 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 0.99 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chonburi FC come into this having played 17 games, going 9W 4D 4L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-W. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Port FC sit at 1.71 PPG from 17 outings (8W 5D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chonburi FC on 1.82 PPG, Port FC on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Chonburi FC's home form reads 5W 2D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Port FC have taken 1.50 points per game from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.41 scored and 0.94 conceded. Chonburi FC's scoring rate against Port FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Port FC in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Port FC in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 9W 4D 4L in their last 17 games (1.82 PPG), while Port FC have gone 8W 5D 4L in their last 17 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Port FC away?
Chonburi FC's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 2.12 PPG; Port FC away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Chonburi FC or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Port FC in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chonburi FC and Port FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2025, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chonburi FC's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Chonburi FC
0
Draws
4
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Port FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 4, Port FC have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Chonburi FC 3-2 Port FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 50%, Port FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Chonburi FC) and 50% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Port FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Port FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 50% of Port FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chonburi FC vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 50% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Port FC tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Port FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chonburi FC edge out Port FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Port FC 3-2 at Chonburi Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.27 xG and Port FC 0.99 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Chonburi FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Port FC outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 1.22 / defence 0.96 against Port FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.04, drawn from 18/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 43% | Draw 28% | Port FC 29%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 53%, Port FC 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Port FC's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.82 PPG, Port FC 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chonburi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Port FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.