Chonburi FC 1-2 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chonburi FC at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chonburi FC vs Police Tero encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chonburi FC host Police Tero at Chonburi Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 February 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Chonburi FC — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Chonburi Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Police Tero stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Police Tero's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Chonburi FC have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Chonburi FC, 1 for Police Tero and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Police Tero winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Chonburi FC in-play and half-time data (20 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Police Tero in-play and half-time data (20 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 55% versus Police Tero 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 50% | Police Tero 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.72 xG and Police Tero 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 1.332 / defence 1.074 | Police Tero attack 0.754 / defence 1.282. League average goals — home 1.007 / away 1.062. Chonburi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.332 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Police Tero bring a strong defensive rating of 1.282 — this is suppressing Chonburi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Chonburi FC games / 20 Police Tero games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 58% | Draw 24% | Police Tero 19%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Police Tero 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Chonburi FC (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Chonburi FC 60% | Police Tero 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Chonburi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 58% | Draw 24% | Police Tero 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 47% | xG Chonburi FC 1.72 / Police Tero 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 1.332 / def 1.074 | Police Tero attack 0.754 / def 1.282 | league avg home 1.007 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Police Tero xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Police Tero kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Police Tero kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Chonburi Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Police Tero?
Chonburi FC 1 - 2 Police Tero.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Police Tero part of?
Chonburi FC vs Police Tero is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 58% chance of winning, Police Tero a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Chonburi FC and Police Tero will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Police Tero?
Record (1 meetings): Chonburi FC 0W | Draws 0 | Police Tero 1W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Police Tero in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Police Tero (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chonburi FC's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Police Tero's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, Police Tero's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
58%
1.73
24%
4.22
19%
5.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.58
0.86
Police Tero xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
5.38
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
24%
4.09
3%
30.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.2 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 0.86 for Police Tero, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Police Tero?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 20 outings, Chonburi FC have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 10W 5D 5L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Police Tero's form line: 5W 9D 6L from 20 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-D. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Chonburi FC are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Police Tero.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chonburi FC have posted 2.18 PPG from 11 outings (7W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Chonburi FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Police Tero have gone 1W 5D 5L from 11 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Police Tero's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Police Tero are on 1.20 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Police Tero
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Police Tero in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 10W 5D 5L in their last 20 games (1.75 PPG), while Police Tero have gone 5W 9D 6L in their last 20 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Police Tero away?
Chonburi FC's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 2.18 PPG; Police Tero away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Chonburi FC or Police Tero been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Police Tero in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Chonburi FC's record when hosting Police Tero specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Chonburi FC
0
Draws
3
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Police Tero?
From 6 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 3, Police Tero have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Police Tero last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2024, when Chonburi FC 4-2 Police Tero.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 64%, Police Tero 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Chonburi FC) and 46% (Police Tero).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Police Tero in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Police Tero?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Chonburi FC's games and 54% of Police Tero's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Police Tero usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 46% of Police Tero's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Police Tero tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Police Tero in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Police Tero defy the odds to beat Chonburi FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Police Tero beat Chonburi FC 1-2 at Chonburi Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.72 xG and Police Tero 0.86 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Police Tero outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 1.33 / defence 1.07 against Police Tero attack 0.75 / defence 1.28, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 58% | Draw 24% | Police Tero 19%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Police Tero win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 50%, Police Tero 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (20 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Police Tero's trading profile (20 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Chonburi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Police Tero winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Police Tero (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.