Chonburi FC 2-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 50%, yet in-form Nakhon Ratchasima FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Nakhon Ratchasima FC travel to Chonburi UTA Stadium to take on Chonburi FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 April 2023, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chonburi FC stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Chonburi UTA Stadium, Chonburi FC have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Chonburi FC are significantly better at Chonburi UTA Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Nakhon Ratchasima FC are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Chonburi FC, 2 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2022, ended 0–1 with Nakhon Ratchasima FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 61% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 54% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 2.00 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 1.017 / defence 1.245 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.020 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.152. Nakhon Ratchasima FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.303 — this is suppressing Chonburi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Chonburi FC games / 57 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 50% | Draw 23% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.57. Chonburi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Nakhon Ratchasima FC (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.46 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chonburi FC 50% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Chonburi UTA Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 50% | Draw 23% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Chonburi FC 2.00 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 1.017 / def 1.245 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.020 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Chonburi FC 2 - 1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 50% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Chonburi FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Record (3 meetings): Chonburi FC 0W | Draws 1 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chonburi FC's attack rating (1.02) and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
50%
2.02
23%
4.41
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
3.46
1.46
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
2.02
50%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
14%
7.37
Win to Nil
11%
8.71
4%
26.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.46 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chonburi FC come into this having played 57 games, going 24W 12D 21L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nakhon Ratchasima FC sit at 1.16 PPG from 57 outings (17W 15D 25L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chonburi FC on 1.47 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Chonburi FC's home form reads 15W 5D 8L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have taken 0.79 points per game from 28 outings (5W 7D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 1.09 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 24W 12D 21L in their last 57 games (1.47 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 17W 15D 25L in their last 57 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.79 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chonburi FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Chonburi FC's record when hosting Nakhon Ratchasima FC specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Chonburi FC
2
Draws
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 2, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Chonburi FC 2-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 61%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Chonburi FC) and 50% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Chonburi FC's games and 57% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chonburi FC edge out Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-1 at Chonburi UTA Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 2.00 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.46 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.25 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.30, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 50% | Draw 23% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 28%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 54%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.47 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chonburi FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.