Chonburi FC 1-0 BG Pathum United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BG Pathum United at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 1 as Chonburi FC welcome BG Pathum United to Chonburi UTA Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 31 August 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chonburi FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC's home record at Chonburi UTA Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Chonburi FC are significantly better at Chonburi UTA Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, BG Pathum United have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. BG Pathum United haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, BG Pathum United have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. BG Pathum United's 2.60 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Chonburi FC's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chonburi FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, BG Pathum United in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Chonburi FC, 1 for BG Pathum United and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2022, ended 1–4 with BG Pathum United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Chonburi FC in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
BG Pathum United in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chonburi FC 67% and BG Pathum United 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 60% | BG Pathum United 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.37 xG and BG Pathum United 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 1.148 / defence 1.179 | BG Pathum United attack 1.036 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.227. Data: 32 Chonburi FC games / 30 BG Pathum United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 35% | Draw 25% | BG Pathum United 40%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | BG Pathum United 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BG Pathum United are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 70% | BG Pathum United 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Chonburi UTA Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 Aug 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 35% | Draw 25% | BG Pathum United 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Chonburi FC 1.37 / BG Pathum United 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 1.148 / def 1.179 | BG Pathum United attack 1.036 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.50
BG Pathum United xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United kick off?
Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United kicked off at 12:00 on Wednesday 31 August 2022 at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United?
Chonburi FC 1 - 0 BG Pathum United.
Where is Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United part of?
Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 35% chance of winning, BG Pathum United a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United?
Record (2 meetings): Chonburi FC 0W | Draws 1 | BG Pathum United 1W.
What form are Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. BG Pathum United (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chonburi FC's attack at 1.15x the league average against BG Pathum United's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, BG Pathum United's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/30 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
35%
2.88
25%
4.02
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.87
1.50
BG Pathum United xG
2.88
35%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
8%
12.91
10%
9.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.6 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.50 for BG Pathum United, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Chonburi FC have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 13W 6D 11L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
BG Pathum United's form line: 17W 9D 4L from 30 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. BG Pathum United haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, BG Pathum United are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chonburi FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Chonburi FC have posted 1.80 PPG from 15 outings (8W 3D 4L).
On the road, BG Pathum United have gone 5W 8D 2L from 15 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BG Pathum United's season.
The Goals Picture
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; BG Pathum United are on 1.73 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: BG Pathum United in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Early Season
BG Pathum United
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 13W 6D 11L in their last 30 games (1.50 PPG), while BG Pathum United have gone 17W 9D 4L in their last 30 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or BG Pathum United away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.80 PPG; BG Pathum United away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Chonburi FC or BG Pathum United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, BG Pathum United in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2022, when BG Pathum United won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chonburi FC's record when hosting BG Pathum United specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Chonburi FC
2
Draws
4
BG Pathum United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United?
From 8 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 2, BG Pathum United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when BG Pathum United 2-3 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Chonburi FC at 73%, BG Pathum United at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Chonburi FC) and 40% (BG Pathum United).
On the defensive side: BG Pathum United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / BG Pathum United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play BG Pathum United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Chonburi FC's games and 60% of BG Pathum United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 40% of BG Pathum United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, BG Pathum United in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chonburi FC defy the odds to beat BG Pathum United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat BG Pathum United 1-0 at Chonburi UTA Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.37 xG and BG Pathum United 1.50 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. BG Pathum United landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 1.15 / defence 1.18 against BG Pathum United attack 1.04 / defence 0.93, drawn from 32/30 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 35% | Draw 25% | BG Pathum United 40%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Chonburi FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 60%, BG Pathum United 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
BG Pathum United's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Chonburi FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.