Chiangrai United 0-0 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 43%, yet in-form Sukhothai FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC meet at Singha Chiangrai Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 November 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chiangrai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chiangrai United have posted 3W 2D 5L at Singha Chiangrai Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sukhothai FC (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sukhothai FC are 0.90 PPG clear of Chiangrai United in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (1.60 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Chiangrai United, 2 for Sukhothai FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 1–2 with Sukhothai FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Chiangrai United — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Sukhothai FC — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 45% versus Sukhothai FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 43% | Sukhothai FC 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.68 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.783 / defence 1.172 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.990 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.149. Chiangrai United's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.68 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sukhothai FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing Chiangrai United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Chiangrai United games / 44 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 43% | Draw 28% | Sukhothai FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Sukhothai FC 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sukhothai FC (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 40% | Sukhothai FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Singha Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 43% | Draw 28% | Sukhothai FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Chiangrai United 1.68 / Sukhothai FC 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.783 / def 1.172 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.990 / def 1.271 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Sukhothai FC xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC?
Chiangrai United 0 - 0 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 43% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC?
Record (4 meetings): Chiangrai United 1W | Draws 1 | Sukhothai FC 2W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Chiangrai United's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Sukhothai FC's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. Flip it around — Sukhothai FC's attack (0.99x) against Chiangrai United's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 42/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
43%
2.31
28%
3.52
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
3.01
1.33
Sukhothai FC xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
11%
8.76
5%
18.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.33 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, Chiangrai United have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 11W 11D 20L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sukhothai FC's form line: 14W 6D 22L from 42 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Chiangrai United against 1.14 for Sukhothai FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Chiangrai United have posted 1.29 PPG from 21 outings (7W 6D 8L).
On the road, Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 5D 14L from 21 away games — 0.52 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chiangrai United are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 1.38 scored and 2.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC in 62%.
Last 42 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 11W 11D 20L in their last 42 games (1.05 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 14W 6D 22L in their last 42 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.29 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sukhothai FC won 3-0 on 25 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chiangrai United have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Chiangrai United
5
Draws
2
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 1, Sukhothai FC have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-1 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC?
Sukhothai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 48%, Sukhothai FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Chiangrai United) and 71% (Sukhothai FC).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Chiangrai United have failed to score in 29% of games; Sukhothai FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Sukhothai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Chiangrai United's games and 67% of Sukhothai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 71% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Chiangrai United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Singha Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 15, as Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.68 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.33 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chiangrai United fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Sukhothai FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.78 / defence 1.17 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.27, drawn from 42/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 43% | Draw 28% | Sukhothai FC 28%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 43%, Sukhothai FC 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.05 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.